Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: match statistics

Ludogorets are slight favorites based on superior form over the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss versus Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses. The key difference is defense — Ludogorets conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 games (0.4 goals per game), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded 8 (1.6 goals per game). Both teams scored 3 goals in that period (0.6 goals per game), so the home side’s edge comes from greater defensive stability. The points-per-game metric over the last 5 matches confirms this: 1.6 PPG for Ludogorets versus 1.0 PPG for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Based on this, I tip the home win; probability distribution is 55% home, 25% draw and 20% away.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Ludogorets had BTTS in 20% of appearances, scoring 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceding 2 (0.4 per match), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv had BTTS in 40%, scoring 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceding 8 (1.6 per match). xG values indicate the home side’s advantage in chance creation: Ludogorets’ attacking xG is 1.57 versus 1.21 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, and xG against is 1.45 for Ludogorets and 2.07 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Although Lokomotiv concedes a lot of goals (8 in 5 matches, 1.6 on average), they only score 0.6 per match, whereas Ludogorets realistically concedes just 0.4 per match, which increases the likelihood that goals will come mainly from the home team. Considering the low average goals scored by both teams (0.6 and 0.6) and the fact that the home side more rarely allows the opponent to score (0.4 vs 1.6), a no BTTS scenario is more probable. I propose a distribution of 30% for BTTS and 70% for no BTTS; therefore the pick: 'no'.

Based on the last 5 matches, Ludogorets has an average xG of 1.57 and scores 0.6 goals per game (3 goals in 5), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv has xG 1.21 and also 0.6 goals per game (3 goals in 5). The away defense is vulnerable — Lokomotiv concedes 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches (8 conceded), whereas Ludogorets concedes only 0.4 goals (2 conceded). Combining the home xG 1.57 with Lokomotiv’s xG against 2.07 yields an expected ~1.82 goals for Ludogorets, and combining the away xG 1.21 with Ludogorets’ xG against 1.45 gives ~1.33 for Lokomotiv; total ≈3.15 goals. A Poisson model with total=3.15 produces about an 82% probability for Over 1.5, 61% for Over 2.5 and 39% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over, particularly the 1.5 line. Although Ludogorets had 0% Over 2.5 matches in the last 5, Lokomotiv’s high goals conceded (8) and the home xG advantage support taking Over 1.5.

In the last 5 matches the home side (Ludogorets) were drawing at Half-Time in 100% of cases, with an average of 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded by the home team at the break (last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_home 100.0; last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home 0.0; last5_concededAVGHT_overall_home 0.0), which strongly favors a draw at Half-Time. The away side (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) average 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded by Half-Time, with their matches averaging 1.4 goals at the break and they were trailing at Half-Time in 60% of their last 5 away games (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away 0.2; last5_concededAVGHT_overall_away 1.2; last5_AVGHT_overall_away 1.4; last5_trailingAtHTPercentage_overall_away 60.0). In second halves the home team averages 1.0 goals per match and scores 0.6 goals after the break with 80% of matches featuring a second-half goal (last5_AVG_2hg_overall_home 1.0; last5_scored_2hg_avg_overall_home 0.6; last5_over05_2hg_percentage_overall_home 80.0), which increases the likelihood of a turnaround in favor of the home side following an HT draw. Considering the higher recent points-per-game for the home side 1.6 versus 1.0 for the away side (last5_seasonPPG_overall_home 1.6 vs last5_seasonPPG_overall_away 1.0), I project X/1 as the strongest signal (36%), followed by X/X (24%) and 1/1 (11%) as less likely alternatives.