Monterrey vs Toluca: match statistics
Monterrey displays impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +12 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts average 2.1 goals per home match while conceding just 0.9, providing a distinct offensive edge. Toluca, despite a solid overall record (14 wins), demonstrates weaker efficiency on the road, failing to score in 45% of matches and averaging only 1.64 goals per game. Monterrey controls 57% possession in home fixtures and boasts a superior shot conversion rate (16% vs 12%). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.51 vs 1.44) and stronger home form (wwwdwdwdww) point towards a victory, though Toluca is capable of resistance, justifying a relatively high probability of a draw.
Monterrey vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Monterrey played against Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The game was played on January 11, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Monterrey has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Toluca has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Monterrey scores 1.86 goals per game and allows 1.62. Toluca scores 2.17 and allows 1.04. Games in this league average 3.03 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 62% of Monterrey's games and 57% of Toluca's. The Over 2.5 rates are 62% and 61%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 56% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Toluca has the higher season xG average, 1.79 to 1.49 per game. Monterrey takes 13.0 shots per game, while Toluca takes 17.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Monterrey leads at halftime in 57% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. Toluca leads at halftime in 48% and scores 1.09 after halftime.
When the teams score
Monterrey's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (15 goals). For Toluca, it is minutes 16-30 (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Liga MX games average 3.03 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 56% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Monterrey displays impressive home form with a 70% win rate and a +12 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts average 2.1 goals per home match while conceding just 0.9, providing a distinct offensive edge. Toluca, despite a solid overall record (14 wins), demonstrates weaker efficiency on the road, failing to score in 45% of matches and averaging only 1.64 goals per game. Monterrey controls 57% possession in home fixtures and boasts a superior shot conversion rate (16% vs 12%). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.51 vs 1.44) and stronger home form (wwwdwdwdww) point towards a victory, though Toluca is capable of resistance, justifying a relatively high probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Monterrey | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Toluca is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Monterrey · 1.4 pts / game - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 17% better for: goals scored per game.
1.86 goals / game - Monterrey · 2.17 goals / game - Toluca
Toluca is 56% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.62 goals / game - Monterrey · 1.04 goals / game - Toluca
Monterrey scores in 90% of games (19 of 21 meczów), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 meczów).
Toluca scores in 74% of games (17 of 23 meczów), while Monterrey keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Monterrey
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Monterrey is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.9 pts / game - Monterrey · 1.74 pts / game - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Monterrey - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 57% of games and wins 52%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 48% of games and wins 61%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Monterrey
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Monterrey | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.48 | 3.03 | ▲ 3.22 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 58% | • 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 62% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 24% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 95% | 74% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 78% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Monterrey's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses against Toluca. Games average 4.67 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Monterrey vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Monterrey 0:1 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Monterrey and Toluca?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Monterrey won 1, Toluca won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Monterrey vs Toluca?
Monterrey score 1.86 goals per game on average and Toluca 2.17. The Liga MX average is 3.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Monterrey's matches and 57% of Toluca's.
What form are Monterrey and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Monterrey have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Toluca 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Monterrey vs Toluca?
The statistical background for Monterrey vs Toluca — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.