MP vs KäPa: match statistics
MP vs KäPa: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
MP played against KäPa in Ykkösliiga (Finland). The game was played on July 29, 2026. Venue: Mikkelin Urheilupuisto. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
MP has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. KäPa has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
MP scores 1.06 goals per game and allows 1.38. KäPa scores 1.13 and allows 1.69. Games in this league average 2.49 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of MP's games and 63% of KäPa's. The Over 2.5 rates are 44% and 69%, compared with league averages of 45% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
KäPa has the higher season xG average, 1.38 to 1.27 per game. MP takes 10.4 shots per game, while KäPa takes 11.1.
First-half and second-half trends
MP leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 0.56 goals per game after halftime. KäPa leads at halftime in 31% and scores 0.50 after halftime.
When the teams score
MP's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (7 goals). For KäPa, it is minutes 0-15 (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ykkösliiga games average 2.49 goals. Both teams score in 45% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a home win for MP (1). MP averages 1.17 goals scored at home with average xG 1.20 and concedes 1.17 per game, whereas KäPa as visitors score 1.00 with xG 1.26 and concede 1.71, meaning hosts concede approximately 0.54 fewer goals. MP averages 10 shots (3.17 on target) with a conversion rate of 12%, while KäPa averages 9.86 shots (3.14 on target) with a 10% conversion; additionally MP has a lower share of goalless matches at 17% versus 29% for the visitors. In the last 5 fixtures MP scored 7 and conceded 9, earning 1.0 point per game on average, while KäPa scored 6 and conceded 11 with 0.8 points per game, which supports greater points stability for the hosts. Clean sheets occur for MP in 33% of home matches versus 14% for KäPa away, so I assess the probabilities as: MP win 55%, draw 25%, away win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess BTTS probability at approximately 75% vs 25%, favoring the "both teams to score" scenario (BTTS - Yes). MP has a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and KäPa 57%, both above the league average of 44%, with MP registering BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches (KäPa 60%). Both sides both score and concede: MP averages 1.25 goals for and 1.50 against per match, KäPa 1.00 for and 1.71 against; in the last 5 matches they conceded on average 1.8 (MP) and 2.2 (KäPa) goals. Seasonal xG confirms the exchange of chances — MP attack xG 1.53 vs 1.26 for KäPa, and xG against 1.58 and 1.57, indicating both teams generate and allow around 1.5 xG per game. The low percentage of clean sheets (MP 13%, KäPa 14%) further reduces the likelihood of a clean sheet for either side and strengthens the signal for BTTS.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project approximately 2.97 goals in the match, split into 1.55 for MP and 1.42 for KäPa, calculated as average xG: MP attack 1.53 vs KäPa defense 1.57 and KäPa attack 1.26 vs MP defense 1.58. A Poisson model for total 2.97 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈80% (at least 2 goals ≈79.8%), Over 2.5 ≈57% and Over 3.5 ≈35%. Seasonal stats support a goal-prone profile: home side has Over 1.5 in 88% of matches, away side in 71%, and in the last 5 fixtures both teams have Over 2.5 at 80%. Additionally, MP averages 12.63 shots and 4.13 on target versus KäPa’s 9.86 and 3.14, with low clean sheet rates of 13% and 14% and BTTS 63%/57%, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, pick “over”), as the expected 2.97 goals and modelled 80% combined with seasonal 88%/71% give a clear edge to this selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
MP has a slight offensive edge: average xG is 1.53 versus 1.26 for KäPa; the home side averages 12.63 shots and 4.13 on target compared to 9.86 and 3.14 for the visitors, and average goals are 1.25 vs 1.00. At Half-Time the data are mixed — MP are level at the break in 50% of their matches this season, while KäPa led at the break in 43% of fixtures, so a draw or an early lead for the visitors is plausible. After the break MP perform better: they earn an average of 1.0 points in second halves versus 0.29 points for KäPa, and KäPa lose second halves in 71% of cases, which supports a turnaround after Half-Time. In the last five matches MP averaged 1.2 points at the break versus 0.4 for KäPa, and the visitors were losing at Half-Time in 60% of their last five fixtures; therefore the strongest signal is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win at Full-Time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| MP | KäPa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
MP is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / game - MP · 0.8 pts / game - KäPa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
KäPa is 7% better for: goals scored per game.
1.06 goals / game - MP · 1.13 goals / game - KäPa
MP is 22% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.38 goals / game - MP · 1.69 goals / game - KäPa
MP scores in 75% of games (12 of 16 games), while KäPa keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 games).
KäPa scores in 69% of games (11 of 16 games), while MP keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - MP
Over / Under - KäPa
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MP is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / game - MP · 1.31 pts / game - KäPa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
MP - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 31%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.8 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
KäPa - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 25%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
MP
KäPa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ykkösliiga).
Teams vs league
| MP | Liga | KäPa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.44 | 2.49 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 44% | 44% | ▲ 69% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 61% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | • 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from MP's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against KäPa. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of MP vs KäPa?
The Ykkösliiga match finished MP 2:1 KäPa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before MP vs KäPa?
MP score 1.06 goals per game on average and KäPa 1.13. The Ykkösliiga average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 50% of MP's matches and 63% of KäPa's.
What form are MP and KäPa in?
Over the last 5 games MP have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and KäPa 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for MP vs KäPa?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.