Nacional vs Peñarol: match statistics
Nacional is showing solid form with three wins in their last five matches and an impressive undefeated record this season. However, their home statistics indicate issues with winning – 100% draws in home matches, despite high possession (66%). Peñarol demonstrates better scoring efficiency (6 goals in 3 matches), but has serious difficulties in away matches with 100% losses and an average of 2 goals conceded per game. xG values indicate Nacional's advantage (1.75 vs 1.43), but their inability to convert dominance into home wins along with Peñarol's poor away form suggest that the most likely scenario is a draw. Both teams struggle to keep clean sheets, which could lead to a thrilling, evenly-matched encounter.
Nacional vs Peñarol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional play Peñarol in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 1 March 2026 at 23:30. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Peñarol: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Peñarol scores 1.52 and concedes 0.90. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 57%, Peñarol 52%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Peñarol 43%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Peñarol has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.50. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Peñarol: 14.8.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86. Peñarol: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.90.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Peñarol: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
5 H2H matches: 1-3-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 40%.
Match description
Nacional is showing solid form with three wins in their last five matches and an impressive undefeated record this season. However, their home statistics indicate issues with winning – 100% draws in home matches, despite high possession (66%). Peñarol demonstrates better scoring efficiency (6 goals in 3 matches), but has serious difficulties in away matches with 100% losses and an average of 2 goals conceded per game. xG values indicate Nacional's advantage (1.75 vs 1.43), but their inability to convert dominance into home wins along with Peñarol's poor away form suggest that the most likely scenario is a draw. Both teams struggle to keep clean sheets, which could lead to a thrilling, evenly-matched encounter.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Peñarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Peñarol is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nacional · 2 pts / match - Peñarol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Peñarol is 48% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Nacional · 0.9 goals / match - Peñarol
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Peñarol keeps a clean sheet in 33% (7 of 21 matches).
Peñarol scores in 86% of matches (18 of 21 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Peñarol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Peñarol is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Nacional · 1.43 pts / match - Peñarol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Peñarol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Peñarol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Peñarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.41 | • 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | • 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 46% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Nacional 1 - 3 - 1 Peñarol. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nacional vs Peñarol?
The Primera División match finished Nacional 0:1 Peñarol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Peñarol?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 1, Peñarol won 1 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Peñarol?
Nacional score 1.52 goals per game on average and Peñarol 1.52. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional's matches and 52% of Peñarol's.
What form are Nacional and Peñarol in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Peñarol 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Peñarol?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Peñarol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.