Nashville SC vs Atlanta United FC: match statistics

I back the home win ('1'). Nashville wins 86% of home matches, remains unbeaten at home (loss% 0) and averages 3.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per home game, yielding a home goal difference of +14. Atlanta have won only 17% of away matches, lost 67%, average 0.5 goals per away game and failed to score in 67% of away fixtures, conceding 1.5 goals on average. Nashville registers 6.57 shots on target per game with a 24% conversion rate and xG 1.63, while Atlanta has 3.33 shots on target and only a 4% conversion with xG 1.41, indicating a clear home advantage in finishing despite similar xG. In the last 5 matches Nashville scored 10 goals and averages 2 points per game, whereas Atlanta have 6 goals and average 0.8 points per game; therefore I assess probabilities as 80% home win, 12% draw and 8% away win.

Statistical analysis favors a BTTS scenario — Nashville has a season BTTS rate of 75% and an average goals scored of 1.38, while Atlanta has BTTS 33% and a season scoring average of 0.5; however, in the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for Nashville and 80% for Atlanta. The visitors have kept 0 clean sheets this season (0%) and conceded 23 goals, whereas the hosts have scored 31 goals; season xG is 1.47 vs 1.41 in favor of Nashville, indicating chances created by both sides. Despite Atlanta’s low season scoring efficiency (0.5 goals), in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.2 goals with xG 1.72, so they have a realistic chance to score. Nashville averages 4.63 shots on target with a 10% conversion, and Atlanta 3.33 shots on target with 4% conversion, while Nashville concedes 1.75 goals per match on average, which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. Considering the hosts’ season BTTS of 75%, the visitors’ 0% clean sheets and the recent runs (60% and 80%), I estimate the probability of BTTS at about 70% (Yes) vs 30% (No).

I estimate expected goals at 1.37 for Nashville and 1.38 for Atlanta (total 2.75). The assessment is based on xG: Nashville has 1.47 xG, while the average xG generated against Atlanta is 1.26; similarly Atlanta has 1.41 xG and the average xG against Nashville is 1.34. Nashville averages 4.63 shots on target versus Atlanta’s 3.33 and has a higher conversion rate of 10% versus 4%; in the last 5 matches Nashville scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) against Atlanta’s 6 goals (1.2), which favors a higher-scoring game. Seasonal rates strongly support Over 1.5 goals: Nashville at home has 88% of matches >1.5, Atlanta away 83% (average ~86%), hence the recommendation is Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is more balanced – Nashville at home 75% >2.5 vs 17% for Atlanta away, but the last 5 matches (80% and 60%) push the probability to around 60% for Over 2.5; Over 3.5 with expected 2.75 goals and seasonal rates 50%/0% (home/away) appears to be about 30% and offers a smaller edge.

Nashville scores an average of 0.63 goals by half-time, while Atlanta has 0.0 in the half-time goals statistic; Nashville led at the break in 38% of matches versus 0% for Atlanta, indicating a home advantage in the first half. Nevertheless, the home side draws at half-time in 50% of their fixtures, so the most likely half-time outcome is a draw or a minimal Nashville lead. After the break Nashville averages 2.0 goals (AVG_2hg_home = 2.0) compared with Atlanta’s 1.17; additionally, they have higher shot efficiency — conversion 10% vs 4% and 4.63 shots on target per match vs 3.33 — which increases their chance of scoring in the second half. In the last 5 matches Nashville won 60% of games and Atlanta 20%, therefore the most reliable scenario appears to be a draw at half-time and a Nashville win at full-time (X/1).