Nõmme United vs Tammeka: match statistics

Nõmme United have a clearly superior home scoring output, averaging 2.27 goals per match compared with Tammeka’s 1.11 away from home. The hosts are also more efficient, converting 17% of their shots, while the visitors convert just 7%, although Tammeka attempt more shots (17 to 13.55) and have a slightly higher xG, 1.87 versus 1.71. Both defenses have looked vulnerable, with Nõmme United conceding 2.18 goals per home match and Tammeka allowing 2.22 away from home, which points towards an open, high-scoring encounter. Recent form is identical, as both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Nõmme scored 18 goals during that period, compared with Tammeka’s impressive 24. Home advantage and the hosts’ significantly greater scoring consistency give them a marginally better chance of winning, despite the genuine threat posed by an attack-minded visiting side.

The “Yes” pick is supported by the current form of both teams: in their last 5 matches, BTTS occurred in 60% of Nõmme United’s and Tammeka’s games, above the league average of 57%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 3.6 goals per match, while Tammeka scored as many as 4.8, conceding 2.0 and 2.2 goals respectively. Across the season, Tammeka have conceded an average of 2.22 goals per game and kept a clean sheet in only 22% of matches, clearly increasing Nõmme United’s chances of scoring. The visitors also create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 1.87 and 5.44 shots on target per match, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.66. The season-long BTTS rates—50% for Nõmme United and 56% for Tammeka—are moderate, but the attacking numbers from recent matches point towards both teams scoring.

The xG profile points to an open match: the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.35 xG, while the visitors produce as much as 1.87 xG, with a combined projection of 3.30 goals. Tammeka concede an average of 2.22 goals per match, while Nõmme United allow opponents 1.66 xG, strengthening the prospect of goals at both ends. In their last five matches, Nõmme United scored 18 goals and Tammeka 24, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% and 80% of those games, respectively. The league also has a high average of 3.11 goals per match, and games involving both teams ended with at least two goals in 50% and 67% of cases, respectively, across the season. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the very high current attacking output and the visitors' defensive weakness clearly limit the risk of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Tammeka possess the stronger attacking potential, averaging 1.87 xG and 17.0 shots per match, compared with Nõmme United’s 1.35 xG and 11.1 attempts. In their last five matches, the visitors scored as many as 4.8 goals per game, averaging 3.0 goals before half-time and holding a lead at the break in 50% of those appearances. During the same period, the hosts were behind after the first half in 75% of matches, conceding an average of 1.5 goals before the break while scoring just 0.5. Although Tammeka concede 2.22 goals per match on average, their recent form, greater volume of scoring chances and first-half advantage provide the strongest support for a scenario in which the visitors lead at half-time and go on to win the match.