Pacific FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

I predict a Supra du Québec win ('2') because the visitors have an offensive edge and better form. Supra average 2.0 goals away with 5.0 shots on target and 18% conversion, while Pacific at home score only 1.0 goal with 3.57 shots on target and 9% conversion; with similar xG (1.3 hosts vs 1.25 guests) the visitors clearly win on efficiency. Pacific at home have yet to win (0 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses), concede an average of 2.0 goals per game and have 0% clean sheets, whereas Supra have an away goal difference of -1 versus the hosts' -7. In the last 5 matches Pacific form is dllll (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 13 goals (0.2 points per game), while Supra in their last 5 have 2 wins, 3 losses, 11 goals scored and 15 conceded (1.2 points per game). Considering shot efficiency, the hosts' lack of wins and the visitors' shooting superiority, I assess probabilities as: away 65%, draw 20%, home 15%.

Seasonal statistics strongly favor BTTS: Pacific FC has BTTS at 71%, Supra du Québec 80%, with a league average of 62%. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS 100%, with Pacific averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded in those five, and Supra 2.2 scored and 3.0 conceded. Offensive support and defensive weaknesses are confirmed by xG and conversion: Pacific has xG_for 1.63 and xG_against 1.19, Supra xG_for 1.25 and xG_against 1.74, and Supra converts shots to goals at 18% versus Pacific 7%. Season averages of goals conceded 1.71 (Pacific) and 2.2 (Supra) and a lack of clean sheets for both teams (0% CS) suggest both sides regularly allow the opponent to score. Therefore the strongest signal from the data points to BTTS = Yes; I assess probability 85% for 'yes' and 15% for 'no'.

Analysis based on xG and seasonal numbers yields a combined expectation of 2.91 goals: Pacific FC has xG_for 1.63, Supra concedes xG_against 1.74 (1.69 average for home), while Supra has xG_for 1.25 and Pacific xG_against 1.19 (1.22 for away). In the last 5 matches Pacific scored on average 1.4 goals, Supra 2.2 goals — a combined 3.6 goals per game — and both teams often score (71% and 80% of matches with both teams scoring). Seasonal percentages over 1.5 are 71% for Pacific and 80% for Supra, and over 2.5 are 57% and 60%, which indicates very strong support for Over 1.5 and moderate support for Over 2.5. Since the expected 2.91 goals is well above the 1.5 threshold, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and most likely bet; Over 3.5 appears unjustified (seasonal 29%/60% and expected <3.5).

Supra du Québec has a clear advantage in the first half — the visitors score an average of 0.8 goals by half-time versus only 0.14 for Pacific, and the visitors lead at the break in 40% of matches while the hosts lead at the break in 0% of cases, so the strongest HT signal points to the visitors. For the full match Supra also looks stronger: seasonal goals average 2.0 vs 1.14 and average points per match 1.4 vs 1.0; although the hosts’ xG is 1.63 versus 1.25 for the visitors, the visitors’ finishing efficiency of 18% vs 7% gives them a real edge and we preliminarily calculate about a 57% chance of a Supra win. Pacific, however, improves more often after the break — average points gained after half-time are 1.43 (hosts) vs 1.0 (visitors), and the hosts have scored 3 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 1 goal for the visitors — hence a real possibility of a turnaround. Combining these signals, the most likely HT/FT scenario is visitors leading at half-time and visitors winning (2/2), which we estimate at about 38%. Other significant options are a full-time draw with visitors leading at half-time (2/X ~8%) and a half-time draw with visitors winning after the break (X/2 ~18%), reflecting the hosts’ potential to come back but lower finishing effectiveness.