Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics
Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Paide played against Tallinna FC Levadia in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The game was played on May 17, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
Paide has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Tallinna FC Levadia has 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, with 3.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Paide scores 1.82 goals per game and allows 1.27. Tallinna FC Levadia scores 2.64 and allows 0.73. Games in this league average 3.22 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 64% of Paide's games and 64% of Tallinna FC Levadia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 64% and 73%, compared with league averages of 53% for BTTS and 67% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tallinna FC Levadia has the higher season xG average, 2.30 to 1.60 per game. Paide takes 12.9 shots per game, while Tallinna FC Levadia takes 19.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Paide leads at halftime in 36% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Tallinna FC Levadia leads at halftime in 55% and scores 1.45 after halftime.
When the teams score
Paide's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (4 goals). For Tallinna FC Levadia, it is minutes 61-75 (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Meistriliiga games average 3.22 goals. Both teams score in 53% of games, and 67% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 3.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2): Tallinna FC Levadia holds a clear offensive advantage — 29 goals this season vs 20 for Paide and 18 goals in the last 5 matches vs Paide’s 8 in the same period. The quality gap in chances is supported by xG and shooting metrics: Levadia’s away xG averages 2.73 vs Paide’s home xG of 1.44, with overall shots 23.25 vs 11.4 and shots on target 8.25 vs 3.2. Form and momentum favor the visitors — Levadia have won all of their last 5 matches, averaging 3.0 points per game in that run, whereas Paide average 1.4 points per game in their last 5. Defensively Paide concede 0.8 goals per home match and Levadia 1.0 away, but hosts have a higher expected goals against (avg xGA 1.55 vs 0.93 for Levadia), suggesting Levadia create clearer chances. Considering 29 vs 20 goals, 2.73 vs 1.44 xG and the visitors’ superiority in shots and possession (62% vs 51%), I assign probabilities: 65% away win, 20% draw, 15% home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes (75% vs 25%) because Tallinna FC Levadia has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and seasonal clean sheets share of 0%, while the league BTTS is 54%, indicating a strong overall trend. Both teams create chances: Paide has average xG 2.05 with xG against 0.98, and Tallinna xG 2.73 with xG against 0.93 — the 2.05 vs 0.98 and 2.73 vs 0.93 profiles show both sides’ ability to score. In the last 5 matches Tallinna averaged 3.6 goals for and 0.4 against, while Paide averaged 1.6 for and 1.4 against, meaning Tallinna is very offensive (3.6) and Paide has recently been more prone to conceding (1.4). Additionally Tallinna registers more shots (23.25 vs 17.14) and shots on target (8.25 vs 6.43), although Paide has higher conversion (18% vs 9%); combined these figures increase the likelihood of goals from both sides, so the “yes” selection is the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I forecast a total of 3.35 goals (Paide 1.49 vs Levadia 1.86), calculated as the average of each team’s attack and the opponent’s defense: Paide xG_for 2.05 vs Levadia xG_against 0.93 -> ~1.49; Levadia xG_for 2.73 vs Paide xG_against 0.98 -> ~1.86. Both teams have 100% of season matches over 1.5 goals, which is the strongest historical signal and justifies a very high probability for Over 1.5. The 2.5 line also favors over: Paide have 71% of matches >2.5, Levadia 75% (average ~73%), and Levadia scored 18 goals in their last 5 matches (3.6 per match). The 3.5 line is less certain – Paide have 43% of games >3.5, Levadia 25% (average ~34%) and the projected 3.35 goals sits slightly below that threshold. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best bet given the 100% historical occurrences >1.5 and the 3.35 goal projection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Based on the statistics, Paide is a clear favorite to lead at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 5 matches (71%) and score an average of 1.57 goals in the first half versus Tallinn FC Levadia’s 0.5. The full match also favors Paide in terms of efficiency and goal balance – Paide averages 3.0 goals per game and concedes 0.57, while Tallinn averages 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, which supports maintaining the lead. The visitors generate higher xG (2.73 vs 2.05) and more shots on target (8.25 vs 6.43), but their conversion rate is only 9% versus the hosts’ 18%, so they less frequently turn chances into goals. Both teams often add goals after the break (100% of matches with at least one second-half goal for both sides), however Paide keep the first half clean sheet in 86% of their HT leads, increasing the chance of seeing the result through. Considering a 71% probability of Paide leading at half-time, the superior 18% conversion and a 3.0 goals-per-game average, the strongest scenario is 1/1 (Paide leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Paide | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 114% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Paide · 3 pts / game - Tallinna FC Levadia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 45% better for: goals scored per game.
1.82 goals / game - Paide · 2.64 goals / game - Tallinna FC Levadia
Tallinna FC Levadia is 74% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.27 goals / game - Paide · 0.73 goals / game - Tallinna FC Levadia
Paide scores in 91% of games (10 of 11 meczów), while Tallinna FC Levadia keeps a clean sheet in 36% (4 of 11 meczów).
Tallinna FC Levadia scores in 100% of games (11 of 11 meczów), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paide
Over / Under - Tallinna FC Levadia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tallinna FC Levadia is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.73 pts / game - Paide · 2 pts / game - Tallinna FC Levadia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paide - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 36% of games and wins 55%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.9 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Tallinna FC Levadia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 55% of games and wins 73%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +8 | +8 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Paide
Tallinna FC Levadia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Paide | Liga | Tallinna FC Levadia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 3.09 | 3.22 | ▲ 3.36 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 53% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 64% | 67% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 27% | 24% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 55% | 74% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 93% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Paide's perspective: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses against Tallinna FC Levadia. Games average 3.20 goals, and both teams scored in 80% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
The Meistriliiga match finished Paide 1:3 Tallinna FC Levadia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paide and Tallinna FC Levadia?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Paide won 2, Tallinna FC Levadia won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
Paide score 1.82 goals per game on average and Tallinna FC Levadia 2.64. The Meistriliiga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 67% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Paide's matches and 64% of Tallinna FC Levadia's.
What form are Paide and Tallinna FC Levadia in?
Over the last 5 games Paide have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Tallinna FC Levadia 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.