Azerbaijan - Premyer LiqasıTofik BakhramovData current as of October 21, 2026

Qarabağ vs Araz: match statistics

Qarabağ crest
Qarabağ
3 : 2half-time 1:0
Araz crest
Araz

Qarabağ vs Araz: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Qarabağ played against Araz in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The game was played on September 6, 2026. Venue: Tofik Bakhramov. Final score: 3:2.

Recent form

Qarabağ has 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 3.00 points per game. Araz has 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 0.33 points per game.

Scoring records

Qarabağ scores 2.00 goals per game and allows 0.50. Araz scores 0.00 and allows 2.00. Games in this league average 2.33 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 50% of Qarabağ's games and 0% of Araz's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 33%, compared with league averages of 33% for BTTS and 43% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Qarabağ has the higher season xG average, 2.52 to 0.99 per game. Qarabağ takes 19.0 shots per game, while Araz takes 9.0.

First-half and second-half trends

Qarabağ leads at halftime in 50% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Araz leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.00 after halftime.

When the teams score

Qarabağ's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (1 goals). For Araz, it is minutes 0-15 (0 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Premyer Liqası games average 2.33 goals. Both teams score in 33% of games, and 43% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 5.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Qarabağ have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far 3:1, averaging 3 goals and an xG of 3.06. The hosts create a very high number of chances, averaging 23 shots and 11 on target per match, with 65% possession. Araz lost their only away fixture, failed to score and conceded as many as 5 goals, while their average attacking xG is just 1.31 compared to 2.02 xG conceded in front of their own goal. The difference is also reflected in their current form: Qarabağ have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 7 goals in that span, whereas Araz have conceded 9. Given this disparity in the quality of chances created and the visitors’ attacking problems, a Qarabağ victory is the most likely outcome.

View the statistical overview
BTTS - will both teams score?

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as the current data for both teams shows that 0% of matches have featured goals from both sides, while the league records just 25% of such games. Qarabağ have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far and conceded only 1 goal, while Araz have yet to score and failed to find the net in 100% of their games. The last five matches present a more balanced picture, with both teams recording BTTS in 40% of their appearances and Araz averaging 1.54 xG, but the hosts remain clear favorites to limit the visitors. Araz concede an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches and have allowed 2.02 xG per game in the current data, so the most likely outcome is a Qarabağ scoring result with at least one side failing to score.

View BTTS statistics
Over/Under - goals analysis

Qarabağ’s last five matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, while Araz’s games averaged 3.0 goals; however, only 40% and 60% of them respectively went Over 2.5 goals. During this period, both teams created quality chances worth 1.52 and 1.54 xG per match, but they also conceded an average of 1.2 and 1.8 goals, respectively. This points more towards a total of around two or three goals than an open, high-scoring game. The league is clearly lower-scoring, with an average of just 2.0 goals and only 33% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals. The Over/Under 3.5 line therefore has the strongest support, as at least four goals are required to surpass it, while league data and recent results do not indicate such a high scoring tempo.

View Over/Under statistics
HT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Qarabağ win at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 of Araz’s last 5. In the first halves, Qarabağ averaged 0.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, pointing to an evenly matched, cautious start. After the break, the hosts show a greater advantage: they score 1.0 goals on average compared with Araz’s 0.6, and they won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, while the visitors did so in only 20%. Overall, Qarabağ won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals, whereas Araz conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game. The data from the current, very small sample of the season is limited, but recent form and the hosts’ clearly stronger second-half performance reinforce the X/1 HT/FT option.

View first-half and second-half statistics

Stats by half

1 : 0
First half
2 : 2
Second half

Game stats

68Possession (%)32
QarabağAraz
15Shots11
QarabağAraz
8Shots on target4
QarabağAraz
2.37xG1.43
QarabağAraz
7Corners4
QarabağAraz
119Dangerous attacks63
QarabağAraz
5Fouls11
QarabağAraz
1Cards3
QarabağAraz

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

2Goals scored / game0
QarabağAraz
0.5Goals allowed / game2
QarabağAraz
61%Average possession44%
QarabağAraz
7.5Shots on target / game3
QarabağAraz

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

19Shots per game9
QarabağAraz
7.5Shots on target3
QarabağAraz
10.5%Shot conversion0%
QarabağAraz
61%Possession44%
QarabağAraz
2.52xG for0.99
QarabağAraz
1.2xG against2.22
QarabağAraz

Shooting quality

Qarabağ: DominantAraz: Balanced
QarabağAraz
Accuracy (shots on target)39%33%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.130.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.270.00

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Qarabağ is 809% better for: last-5 form.

3 pts / game - Qarabağ · 0.33 pts / game - Araz

Qarabağ
WW
5 wins in a row
Season result split
100% W0% D0% L
Season (W-D-L)
2-0-0
3.00 pts / game · goal difference +3
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-0-0
3.00 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Last 5 at home
1-0-0
W
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 0.5xG: 2.52Opponent xG: 1.20BTTS: 50%Over 2.5: 50%
Araz
DLL
No win in the last 5 games
Season result split
0% W33% D67% L
Season (W-D-L)
0-1-2
0.33 pts / game · goal difference -6
Last 5 (W-D-L)
0-1-2
0.33 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Last 5 away
0-0-1
L
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 0.0Goals conceded: 2.0xG: 0.99Opponent xG: 2.22BTTS: 0%Over 2.5: 33%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Qarabağ is 300% better for: goals allowed per game.

0.5 goals / game - Qarabağ · 2 goals / game - Araz

Qarabağ scoring profile: very strong

Qarabağ scores in 100% of games (2 of 2 games), while Araz keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 games).

Araz scoring profile: more difficult

Araz scores in 0% of games (0 of 3 games), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 50% (1 of 2 games).

4Goals scored (season)0
QarabağAraz
1Goals conceded (season)6
QarabağAraz
2.5Average goals per game2
QarabağAraz
4Goals scored (last 5)0
QarabağAraz
1Goals conceded (last 5)6
QarabağAraz

How often they score at least...

100%1 goal0%
QarabağAraz
50%2 goals0%
QarabağAraz
50%3 goals0%
QarabağAraz
0%4 goals0%
QarabağAraz

How often they concede at least...

50%1 goal67%
QarabağAraz
0%2 goals33%
QarabağAraz
0%3 goals33%
QarabağAraz
0%4 goals33%
QarabağAraz

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

Goal patterns

50%BTTS at half-time0%
QarabağAraz
0%BTTS in both halves0%
QarabağAraz
50%Scored in both halves0%
QarabağAraz

BTTS and goal count

50%Min. 3 goals and BTTS0%
QarabağAraz
0%Min. 3 goals without BTTS33%
QarabağAraz
50%BTTS - last 50%
QarabağAraz

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

1st half

100%Min. 1 goal before half-time33%
QarabağAraz
50%Min. 2 goals before half-time33%
QarabağAraz
0%Min. 3 goals before half-time33%
QarabağAraz

2nd half

50%Min. 1 goal after half-time67%
QarabağAraz
50%Min. 2 goals after half-time0%
QarabağAraz
0%Min. 3 goals after half-time0%
QarabağAraz

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Qarabağ is 199% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

2 pts / game - Qarabağ · 0.67 pts / game - Araz

Qarabağ - half-time state
50% leading50% draw0% trailing
Araz - half-time state
0% leading67% draw33% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

2Points per game (1st half)0.67
QarabağAraz
1Goals scored (1st half)0
QarabağAraz
0.5Goals conceded (1st half)1.33
QarabağAraz
1.5Average goals (1st half)1.33
QarabağAraz
50%Clean sheet before half-time67%
QarabağAraz
0%No goal before half-time100%
QarabağAraz

After half-time (2nd half)

2Points per game (2nd half)0.33
QarabağAraz
1Goals scored (2nd half)0
QarabağAraz
0Goals conceded (2nd half)0.67
QarabağAraz
1Average goals (2nd half)0.67
QarabağAraz
100%Clean sheet after half-time33%
QarabağAraz
50%No goal after half-time100%
QarabağAraz

Qarabağ - second-half results

50% W50% D0% L
4
Half-time points
2
Half-time goals
+1
Goal difference (1st half)
4
Second-half points
+2
Goal difference (2nd half)
2.00
PPG before half-time
Lead holding200%

Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 100%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime-0.5

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Araz - second-half results

0% W33% D67% L
2
Half-time points
0
Half-time goals
-4
Goal difference (1st half)
1
Second-half points
-2
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.67
PPG before half-time
Defense after halftime-0.7

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Qarabağ - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game2.002.00
Goals scored / game1.01.0
Goals allowed / game0.50.0
Average goals per game1.51.0
1 goal100%50%
2 goals50%50%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet50%100%
No goal0%50%
Goal difference+1+2
Half-time: 50% leading - 50% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 50% won - 50% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 50% - Half-time goals total: 2
Araz - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game0.670.33
Goals scored / game0.00.0
Goals allowed / game1.30.7
Average goals per game1.30.7
1 goal33%67%
2 goals33%0%
3 goals33%0%
Clean sheet67%33%
No goal100%100%
Goal difference-4-2
Half-time: 0% leading - 67% draw - 33% trailing
2nd half: 0% won - 33% draw - 67% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 0

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Qarabağ
ScoredConceded
0
0
0-15
1
0
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
0
46-60
0
0
61-75
1
0
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (1 goal). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.

Araz
ScoredConceded
0
1
0-15
0
1
16-30
0
2
31-45
0
1
46-60
0
0
61-75
0
1
76-90

Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.25
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
2.0 : 0.3
Estimated goal split
home : away
97%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
25%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+152%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
0%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
0%
0:0 risk
practically zero
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Qarabağ

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+1.32
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.18
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+0.4 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.52
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.70
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
127%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
66%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

Araz

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-1.23
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.77
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+1.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.99
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.22
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
0%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
127%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
0.00
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
0% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 0% come in the first quarter-hour.
0%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).

Teams vs league

QarabağLigaAraz
Average goals per game▲ 2.502.33▼ 2.00
Both teams scored▲ 50%33%▼ 0%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 50%43%▼ 33%
Clean sheets▲ 50%40%▼ 33%
Goal before half-time▲ 100%62%▼ 33%
Goal after half-time▼ 50%71%▼ 67%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.33
Average goals per game
33%
Both teams scored
43%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
40%
Clean sheets
1.57
Home goals / game
0.76
Away goals / game
+107%
Home attack advantage
+52%
Home defensive advantage
+28%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
62%
1 goal
33%
2 goals
10%
3 goals
5%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
71%
1 goal
33%
2 goals
14%
3 goals
5%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. ArazYellow cardRovlan Muradov
  2. ArazSubstitutionOn: Bruno Alexandre FrancoOff: Issouf Paro
  3. ArazYellow cardMustafá Ahmadzada
  4. QarabağYellow cardCebrails Makreckis
  5. ArazYellow cardMamadou Kané
  6. QarabağSubstitutionOn: Reda Jousef KhadraOff: Oleksii Kashchuk
  7. QarabağGoalMusa Gurbanli

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

Head-to-head

Record from Qarabağ's perspective: 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses against Araz. Games average 5.67 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.

FAQ

What was the result of Qarabağ vs Araz?

The Premyer Liqası match finished Qarabağ 3:2 Araz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What is the head-to-head record between Qarabağ and Araz?

In the last 3 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 3, Araz won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 5.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Qarabağ vs Araz?

Qarabağ score 2.00 goals per game on average and Araz 0.00. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.33 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Qarabağ's matches and 0% of Araz's.

What form are Qarabağ and Araz in?

Over the last 5 games Qarabağ have a 2-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Araz 0-1-2 (0.33 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Qarabağ vs Araz?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.