Quilmes vs Temperley: match statistics

Quilmes are clearly more solid at home: they win 54% of such matches, score an average of 1.23 goals and concede just 0.38, keeping a clean sheet in 62% of games. Temperley score only 0.54 goals per away match, fail to find the net in 54% of their outings and win just 23% of away fixtures. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 12.31 shots and an xG of 1.53, compared with the visitors’ 8.69 shots and xG of 1.16. Both teams have conceded 5 goals in their last five matches, but Quilmes have recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in that period, while their home defense should contain Temperley’s inefficient attack. Temperley’s high 54% away draw rate increases the likelihood of a closely contested match; however, the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and defensive solidity points to a narrow Quilmes victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS is not Temperley’s very poor away attacking efficiency: the team averages only 0.54 goals away from home and fails to score in 54% of its matches. Temperley’s season BTTS rate is just 31%, well below Quilmes’ 54% and the league average of 40%. The visitors keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, while Quilmes fail to score in 15%, so there is also a realistic path to a result with the home side drawing a blank. Although the last five matches saw both teams concede 1.0 goal per game on average, Quilmes have a solid home scoring average of 1.69 goals, which supports a one-goal home win scenario more than a Goal/Goal outcome. Temperley have recently improved their attacking output to 1.6 goals per match, but their low away average and 6% shooting accuracy still suggest that at least one team will fail to score.

Quilmes has a clear attacking advantage: at home, they average 1.69 goals scored, while their average xG stands at 1.44 against Temperley’s 1.52 xG conceded. However, the visitors score just 0.54 goals per away game, have failed to score in 54% of matches, and have gone over 2.5 goals in only 8% of their games. Temperley keep a clean sheet in 46% of their appearances, which limits the prospect of a very high-scoring game even with the hosts’ strong attacking output. In the last five matches, both teams have improved their scoring efficiency to 1.8 and 1.6 goals per game, respectively, making the 2.5 line less clear-cut. The strongest signal points to Under 3.5, as no Temperley match has finished with more than 3.5 goals this season, while only 23% of Quilmes’ matches have gone over this line.

Temperley very often goes into half-time level: this occurred in 8 of 13 matches, or 62%, while the team averages just 0.38 goals per match before the break. Quilmes led at half-time in 46% of matches, but in their last five games they were level at the break three times, reinforcing the likelihood of an even opening. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as Quilmes averages 0.92 goals in the second half compared with Temperley’s meagre 0.15, and wins this period in 54% of matches versus just 8% for their opponents. Across the season, Quilmes win 62% of their matches and average 1.69 goals per game, while Temperley score only 0.54 goals per away match and fail to score in 54% of their away appearances. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Quilmes win.