Roma vs Atalanta: match statistics

I back the home win: Roma win 69% of matches at home, score 1.63 goals and concede only 0.56 per game, with home xG 1.72 vs xG against 0.98. Atalanta away win rate is 33%, with 40% draws, scoring 1.27 and conceding 0.93 per away match; their away xG is 1.43 vs xG against 1.52, indicating fewer quality chances and higher defensive risk. Roma average 15.13 shots and 4.75 on target at home versus Atalanta’s 12.47 shots and 4.0 on target, and the home clean sheet rate is 56% vs 40% for the visitors, giving a clear edge in quality and defensive stability. In the last 5 matches Roma scored 10 and conceded 11, Atalanta scored 6 and conceded 6; average points from those five fixtures are 1.2 for Roma and 1.4 for Atalanta, so short-term form slightly favors the visitors. Considering Roma’s xG advantage (1.72 vs 1.43), lower average goals conceded (0.56 vs 0.93) and superior shot and possession metrics, I assign Roma 60% probability, 25% draw, and 15% for an Atalanta win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates near the midline: Roma 47% and Atalanta 53%, versus a league average of 46%, providing an initial balance favoring goals on both ends. Strong signal from Roma’s last 5 matches — 60% BTTS, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (10 for, 11 against), indicating high volatility and a tendency for goals from both sides. Atalanta in their last 5 show 40% BTTS and average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, but seasonally they fail to score in only 13% of matches, so they usually find the net. xG and shot metrics support this view: Roma at home generates 1.86 xG and produces 17.29 shots (5.18 on target), while Atalanta away concedes on average 1.52 xG against their own 1.43 xG, so both sides create realistic chances. Considering Roma’s advantage in chance creation, the high BTTS share in recent matches and Atalanta’s low 13% of matches without scoring, I tip BTTS - Yes with a 65% probability versus 35% No.

I estimate expected goals based on xG: Roma 1.69 (Roma xG 1.86 vs xG conceded to Atalanta 1.52), Atalanta 1.27 (Atalanta xG 1.43 vs xG conceded to Roma 1.11), giving a total of 2.96 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.96 yields roughly an 80% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 57% for Over 2.5 and about 34% for Over 3.5, which forms the basis of the forecast. Seasonal stats confirm the direction: Over 1.5 occurred in 71% of Roma’s matches and 80% of Atalanta’s, while Over 2.5 only in 41% and 33% of their games respectively. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Roma scored 10 and conceded 11 goals (averaging 2.0 scored and 2.2 conceded), increasing the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game. For these reasons I recommend the strongest pick as Over 1.5 (Over) with an estimated probability of about 80%.

Roma are the favorites at Half-Time: the hosts led at the break in 47% of their home matches and average 0.71 goals by half-time, while Atalanta averaged 0.47 goals scored and conceded 0.53 in first halves. Over the full 90 minutes Roma’s advantage persists — Roma average 1.47 goals per match and xG 1.86, whereas Atalanta have 1.27 goals and xG 1.43; additionally Roma register 5.18 on-target shots per game versus Atalanta’s 4.0, indicating greater offensive pressure from the hosts. Considering Roma win 53% of home matches and lead at the break 47% of the time, the most likely scenario is Roma leading at half-time and winning the match — I assign this a 37% probability. As alternatives I see a half-time draw followed by a Roma victory (X/1) at 10% probability and a draw at half-time and full-time (X/X) at 13%, given that half-time draws occur in 29% of home games. The scenario of Atalanta leading at half-time is less likely (Atalanta led at the break in 33% of away matches), so the final outcomes 2/2 and 2/X are assessed at 11% and 7% respectively.