Roma vs Inter Milan: match statistics

Roma remain unbeaten: they have won all 4 league matches and recorded 4 wins and a draw in their last five games, with a 13:2 goal difference. At home, the hosts average 3 goals with an xG of 2.99, registering 28 shots per match and 9 on target, which highlights the very high quality and efficiency of their attack. Inter also have a perfect record of 4 wins this season and boast very strong away metrics: an xG of 2.83 and just 0.83 xG conceded to opponents, while also keeping a clean sheet in every away match. However, the Romans have shown greater defensive stability recently, conceding only 2 goals in their last five appearances, compared with Inter’s 8. This promises to be a closely contested match between two strong teams, but home advantage and Roma’s greater consistency in creating and converting chances slightly favor the hosts.

The signal for goals from both sides comes primarily from current form: Roma have recorded BTTS in 40% of their last 5 matches, while Inter have done so in as many as 80%, averaging 2.6 and 2.8 goals scored respectively. Both teams create a high volume of quality chances, with average xG over five matches standing at 2.20 for Roma and 2.56 for Inter. Roma have conceded just 0.4 goals per match during this period, but Inter possess significant attacking strengths, averaging 7.0 shots on target and generating a season-long xG of 2.83. On the other hand, Inter have kept a clean sheet in all of their away matches so far, which clearly limits confidence in this selection. However, Roma average 4.0 goals scored at home with 2.50 xG. The attacking potential of both teams slightly outweighs the defensive concerns, pointing marginally towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Both teams head into this match in very strong attacking form: Roma have averaged 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Inter have averaged 2.8. Their creative potential is also high, with average xG figures over this period of 2.20 for Roma and 2.56 for Inter, respectively. However, Inter have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match in their last five outings, which significantly increases the home side’s chances, despite Roma conceding just 0.4 goals per game over the same period. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of Roma’s recent matches and in as many as 80% of Inter’s games, compared with a league average of 3.03 goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.45 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if Roma’s defense partially limits finishing efficiency.

Roma start matches very strongly: in 80% of their last five games, they were leading at the break, scored an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, and conceded none in that period. Inter were ahead at half-time in only 20% of their last five matches, drew at the break in 60%, and conceded an average of 1.0 goal, strengthening the scenario of the home side taking the lead in the first half. Roma have won four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding just 0.4, while Inter, despite averaging 2.8 goals per match, allowed opponents 1.6 goals. After the break, the hosts remain dangerous, averaging 1.4 goals scored across their last five appearances, so Roma’s lead has a solid chance of being maintained until full-time. Inter create plenty of chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.83 and an average of 31 shots, but their 3% conversion rate and Roma’s highly solid defense point towards an HT/FT outcome of 1/1.