Samsunspor vs Göztepe: match statistics

Samsunspor have shown better form in their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 3 wins and 1 draw, while Göztepe have picked up 6 points. The hosts have also been significantly more prolific, scoring 10 goals during this period—an average of 2.0 per match—compared with Göztepe’s 6 goals (1.2 per game). Both teams have conceded 6 goals in their five matches, so Samsunspor’s advantage is primarily due to their greater attacking potential rather than a more solid defense. Göztepe have lost just once and recorded two draws, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested match, but the hosts have the better recent record and a four-goal advantage in attacking output. A narrow Samsunspor victory is therefore the most likely outcome.

Recent form points to a moderate preference for the both-teams-to-score scenario: BTTS occurred in 60% of Göztepe’s last five matches and in 40% of Samsunspor’s games. Samsunspor scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, while Göztepe scored 6, averaging 1.2 per game. Both teams conceded 1.2 goals per match, while the quality of their defensive situations was weaker: Samsunspor allowed 1.88 xG, and Göztepe allowed 1.60. Göztepe also produced 1.69 xG, higher than Samsunspor’s 1.36, giving the visitors solid grounds to respond to the hosts’ attacking threat. The lack of complete season data lowers confidence in the prediction, but the last-five-match record supports BTTS - Yes more than the BTTS - No option, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The available data from the last five matches points to Samsunspor’s offensive profile: the team scored 10 goals, averaging 2.0 per game, while conceding 6. Göztepe averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded during this period, resulting in an average of 2.4 goals in their matches. The chance-quality metrics further support a goals-based outcome, with Göztepe’s xG at 1.69 and Samsunspor’s xG conceded at 1.88, while the hosts recorded 1.36 xG against 1.60 allowed by their opponents. The Over 1.5 goals line has an edge, as the projected total of 2.85 goals is clearly above the threshold, and 80% of Samsunspor’s last matches ended with at least three goals.

Göztepe have started their recent matches very strongly, leading at the break in 80% of them, scoring an average of 1.0 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Samsunspor had a lower rate of half-time leads at 40%, while also conceding an average of 0.6 goals in the first halves. After the break, however, the advantage shifts to the home side, who scored an average of 1.2 goals, whereas Göztepe managed just 0.2 and lost the second half in 60% of their last five matches. Samsunspor won 60% of those games and averaged 2.0 goals scored per match, compared with 1.2 for the visitors. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/2: Göztepe to lead at half-time, but Samsunspor to complete the turnaround and win by the final whistle.