Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale: match statistics

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in significantly better form, having won their last 5 matches while scoring 14 goals and conceding just 4. During the same period, Kawasaki Frontale recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. At home, Hiroshima average 3 goals per match, with an xG of 2.48—well above Kawasaki’s 1.73 xG away from home. The difference is also evident in chance creation and finishing: Hiroshima average 23 shots, including 8 on target, compared with Kawasaki’s 16 shots and 4 on target, while their conversion rate stands at 13% versus 6%. Hiroshima’s home defense is yet to concede a goal and allows opponents just 0.81 xG, whereas Frontale concede an average of 1 goal and allow opponents 1.45 xG. Kawasaki average 69% possession, but all of their away matches so far have ended in draws. Given Hiroshima’s strong form and superior chance quality, the home side are backed to win.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have had goals scored by both sides in 100% of their matches this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Sanfrecce average 2.0 goals, while Kawasaki average 1.0, with the hosts conceding as many as 2.0 goals per match, giving the visitors a realistic path to scoring. In their last five matches, Kawasaki recorded BTTS in 80% of cases and Sanfrecce in 60%, while their average xG stands at 1.92 and 2.18 respectively. The hosts are on an excellent run of five consecutive wins and have scored 14 goals during this period, while Kawasaki have conceded an average of 1.4 goals, so Sanfrecce should also find the back of the net. The risk to the pick comes from Sanfrecce’s strong recent defensive record, having conceded only 4 goals across their last five appearances; however, Kawasaki’s attacking potential makes the scenario with both teams scoring more likely.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in excellent form, averaging 2.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Kawasaki Frontale have averaged 1.4 goals during the same period. Both teams have scored at least one goal in every league match played so far, while neither has kept a clean sheet. The hosts are creating particularly many chances, averaging 2.19 xG and 7 shots on target, whereas the visitors record 1.73 xG and 4 shots on target. In their last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 80% of Hiroshima’s games and 60% of Kawasaki’s, compared with a league average of 3.35 goals. However, the strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the attacking potential of both teams and the lack of clean sheets clearly reduce the likelihood of a match finishing with no more than one goal.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima are in excellent form, having won their last five matches, while Kawasaki Frontale have won only one of their last five fixtures and suffered two defeats. The hosts were leading at the break in all five of their most recent outings, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time compared with Kawasaki’s 0.4. Hiroshima’s superiority is also evident over the full 90 minutes: they have recently averaged 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while the visitors have recorded 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. After the break, the hosts conceded just 0.2 goals per match during this run, making 1/1 the most consistent HT/FT scenario: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to lead at half-time and maintain their winning advantage through to full-time.