Termez Surkhon vs Nasaf: match statistics

Nasaf are 5th in the table, while Termez Surkhon are 12th, and Nasaf hold a clear edge over their last five matches: they have won 3 and scored 9 goals, whereas the hosts have won once and found the net just 2 times. Away from home, the visitors average 1.42 goals per match, compared with the hosts’ 0.75 at home, and their shot conversion rate is 11% versus 7%. Nasaf also create slightly better chances, averaging 1.47 xG away from home compared with Termez’s 1.33 at home. The hosts’ defense has looked solid recently, conceding just 2 goals in five matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, particularly as 42% of Nasaf’s away matches have ended level. However, the visitors’ greater attacking efficiency and stronger recent form point to an away win.

A goal from only one of the teams is slightly more likely, primarily due to Termez Surkhon’s recent attacking form. The hosts have averaged just 0.4 goals across their last five matches, with both teams scoring in only 20% of those games. In addition, Termez have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their matches this season and have conceded an average of 0.4 goals recently, making things difficult for Nasaf. The case for BTTS - Yes is supported by both teams scoring in 80% of Nasaf’s last five matches and average xG of 1.24 for the hosts and 1.75 for the visitors, so the slight edge is with BTTS - No. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0:0 draw.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line landed in 85% of Termez Surkhon’s matches and 75% of Nasaf’s. The hosts concede an average of 0.85 goals and have scored just 0.4 per match across their last 5 games, limiting the chances of a high-scoring game. Nasaf pose a greater attacking threat, averaging 1.42 goals with an xG of 1.47, yet 75% of their matches have also featured fewer than 4 goals. The forecast of 2.35 goals overall therefore supports Under 3.5, although Nasaf’s scoring rate of 1.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches means 3 goals cannot be ruled out.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Termez Surkhon were level at the break in 69% of their matches, Nasaf in 50%, and the figure was 60% for both teams across their last five games. The hosts conceded an average of just 0.15 goals before half-time, further limiting the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. After the break, however, Nasaf’s current form could give them the edge: they scored an average of 1.8 goals and won three times in their last five matches, while Termez scored 0.4 goals and won just once. The difference in second-half performances in those matches is particularly notable: Nasaf averaged 1.2 goals after the break, compared with 0.2 for Termez. For this reason, a draw at half-time followed by an away win is the strongest single scenario. The risk of the match remaining level is still significant, as the hosts conceded an average of only 0.4 goals in their last five games.