The New Saints vs Connah's Quay: match statistics
The New Saints vs Connah's Quay: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
The New Saints played against Connah's Quay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The game was played on April 3, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
The New Saints has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. Connah's Quay has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
The New Saints scores 2.60 goals per game and allows 0.80. Connah's Quay scores 1.97 and allows 1.17. Games in this league average 2.89 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 40% of The New Saints's games and 67% of Connah's Quay's. The Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 70%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
The New Saints has the higher season xG average, 2.11 to 1.77 per game. The New Saints takes 16.6 shots per game, while Connah's Quay takes 13.1.
First-half and second-half trends
The New Saints leads at halftime in 60% of its games and scores 1.50 goals per game after halftime. Connah's Quay leads at halftime in 43% and scores 1.13 after halftime.
When the teams score
The New Saints's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (19 goals). For Connah's Quay, it is minutes 76-90+ (14 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Welsh Premier League games average 2.89 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The New Saints appear to be the favorites: at home they average 2.93 goals per game versus Connah's Quay's 1.73 away, and season xG is 2.26 for TNS compared to 1.54 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. The hosts average 18.33 shots and 6.93 on target at home with 68% possession, while Connah's has 11.4 shots and 5.4 on target with 55% possession, so TNS generates substantially more high-quality opportunities. Defensively both teams are similar (average goals conceded ~0.93 in home/away context, xG against 0.98 vs 1.05), but TNS has a higher clean sheet rate at home (53% vs 40%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring (13% vs 27%). In the last 5 matches both sides scored 8 goals, however TNS recorded 3 wins and 2 losses (avg 1.8 pts/match) versus Connah's 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts/match), giving the hosts an edge in form and efficiency. Considering TNS's 80% home win rate combined with superior offensive stats and game control, I predict a victory for The New Saints.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics favor BTTS 'Yes': The New Saints average 2.2 goals per game (xG 2.0) and have a home BTTS rate of 87% with only 13% clean sheets, indicating hosts rarely finish without conceding. Connah's Quay average 1.73 goals per game (xG 1.54) and concede 0.93 goals on the road, and in their last 5 matches they recorded BTTS in 80% of games, so the visitors have recently both scored and conceded regularly. Both teams generate chances: TNS averages 14.87 shots with 6.47 on target, Connah's Quay 11.4 with 5.4 on target, with an equal conversion rate of 15%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Counter signals are the visitors' seasonal BTTS rate of 47% and league clean sheet percentage of 57%, but TNS's offensive superiority and the visitors' recent form prevail. Therefore I assess BTTS 'Yes' probability at 75% vs 25% and recommend a 'yes' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The calculated expected goals are 1.53 for The New Saints and 1.44 for Connah's Quay, totaling 2.97 xG, which strongly supports outcomes over 1.5. The New Saints average 2.20 goals per game, Connah's Quay 1.73 (combined 3.93), and the home side have 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals while the visitors 73%. 80% of home matches finished over 2.5 goals and 60% for the away team, so Over 2.5 also looks attractive (est. 72% probability). The low number of clean sheets for the hosts (13%) and the fact that in 87% of The New Saints’ matches both teams scored increase the likelihood of an Over outcome. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side hold a clear offensive advantage: home xG for The New Saints is 2.0 versus 1.54 xG for Connah's Quay, and the season average goals are 2.2 (home) versus 1.73 (away). At half-time TNS led in 8 home matches, i.e. in 53% of cases, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded by the break, giving them a real lead at the break after 45 minutes. After 90 minutes the hosts remain favored: 53% home wins and a goals comparison of 2.2 scored at home versus 0.93 conceded by visitors away suggest a typical full-time score around 2-1, with 87% of TNS matches featuring both teams scoring. For these reasons the strongest signal is 1/1 (lead at the break and home win at full-time), which I assign a 35% probability; the alternative of a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) I rate at 15%, and scenarios with the away side leading at the break account for roughly 20% overall.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| The New Saints | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
The New Saints is 71% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - The New Saints · 1.4 pts / game - Connah's Quay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
The New Saints is 32% better for: goals scored per game.
2.6 goals / game - The New Saints · 1.97 goals / game - Connah's Quay
The New Saints is 46% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.8 goals / game - The New Saints · 1.17 goals / game - Connah's Quay
The New Saints scores in 90% of games (27 of 30 meczów), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 meczów).
Connah's Quay scores in 87% of games (26 of 30 meczów), while The New Saints keeps a clean sheet in 53% (16 of 30 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - The New Saints
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
The New Saints is 22% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.07 pts / game - The New Saints · 1.7 pts / game - Connah's Quay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
The New Saints - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 60% of games and wins 80%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 43% of games and wins 53%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
The New Saints
Connah's Quay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| The New Saints | Liga | Connah's Quay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.40 | 2.89 | ▲ 3.13 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 54% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 53% | 29% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 73% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from The New Saints's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Connah's Quay. Games average 3.33 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished The New Saints 2:1 Connah's Quay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between The New Saints and Connah's Quay?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches The New Saints won 2, Connah's Quay won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
The New Saints score 2.60 goals per game on average and Connah's Quay 1.97. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 40% of The New Saints's matches and 67% of Connah's Quay's.
What form are The New Saints and Connah's Quay in?
Over the last 5 games The New Saints have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Connah's Quay 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for The New Saints vs Connah's Quay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.