Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: match statistics
Olympique Marseille sits in 4th place in the table and shows a significantly better overall record (13 wins) than Toulouse (8 wins), who occupy the 11th position. Although Marseille has weaker away form (42% wins away, 50% losses), their advantage in possession (57% vs 43%) and higher number of goals scored this season (51 vs 33) indicate their offensive potential. Toulouse has a decent defense at home (1.33 goals conceded on average), but poor form in the last 5 matches (1 win, 0.8 PPG) and the fact they fail to score in 33% of home matches weaken their chances. Expected goals (xG) are similar for both teams, but Marseille's greater experience and squad quality tip the scales of victory in their favor. I expect a difficult but winning match for the visitors with a result of 1-2 or 0-1.
Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Toulouse played against Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1 (France). The game was played on March 7, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Toulouse has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.40 points per game. Olympique Marseille has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Toulouse scores 1.38 goals per game and allows 1.17. Olympique Marseille scores 2.13 and allows 1.38. Games in this league average 2.79 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 42% of Toulouse's games and 50% of Olympique Marseille's. The Over 2.5 rates are 46% and 67%, compared with league averages of 48% for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Olympique Marseille has the higher season xG average, 1.67 to 1.47 per game. Toulouse takes 13.1 shots per game, while Olympique Marseille takes 14.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Toulouse leads at halftime in 25% of its games and scores 0.88 goals per game after halftime. Olympique Marseille leads at halftime in 42% and scores 1.25 after halftime.
When the teams score
Toulouse's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Olympique Marseille, it is minutes 76-90+ (14 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ligue 1 games average 2.79 goals. Both teams score in 48% of games, and 51% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Olympique Marseille sits in 4th place in the table and shows a significantly better overall record (13 wins) than Toulouse (8 wins), who occupy the 11th position. Although Marseille has weaker away form (42% wins away, 50% losses), their advantage in possession (57% vs 43%) and higher number of goals scored this season (51 vs 33) indicate their offensive potential. Toulouse has a decent defense at home (1.33 goals conceded on average), but poor form in the last 5 matches (1 win, 0.8 PPG) and the fact they fail to score in 33% of home matches weaken their chances. Expected goals (xG) are similar for both teams, but Marseille's greater experience and squad quality tip the scales of victory in their favor. I expect a difficult but winning match for the visitors with a result of 1-2 or 0-1.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Toulouse | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Olympique Marseille is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / game - Toulouse · 1 pts / game - Olympique Marseille
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Olympique Marseille is 54% better for: goals scored per game.
1.38 goals / game - Toulouse · 2.13 goals / game - Olympique Marseille
Toulouse is 18% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.17 goals / game - Toulouse · 1.38 goals / game - Olympique Marseille
Toulouse scores in 67% of games (16 of 24 meczów), while Olympique Marseille keeps a clean sheet in 25% (6 of 24 meczów).
Olympique Marseille scores in 75% of games (18 of 24 meczów), while Toulouse keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Toulouse
Over / Under - Olympique Marseille
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Olympique Marseille is 36% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / game - Toulouse · 1.54 pts / game - Olympique Marseille
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Toulouse - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Olympique Marseille - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 54%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Toulouse
Olympique Marseille
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 1).
Teams vs league
| Toulouse | Liga | Olympique Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.54 | 2.79 | ▲ 3.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 29% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 71% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Olympique MarseilleSubstitutionOn: Emerson Palmieri dos SantosOff: Pierre-Emerick Emiliano François Aubameyang
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Toulouse's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Olympique Marseille. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
The Ligue 1 match finished Toulouse 0:1 Olympique Marseille. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
Toulouse score 1.38 goals per game on average and Olympique Marseille 2.13. The Ligue 1 average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Olympique Marseille's.
What form are Toulouse and Olympique Marseille in?
Over the last 5 games Toulouse have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Olympique Marseille 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.