Vaprus vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia are top of the table — 14 wins, 4 draws and only 1 loss with a goal difference of 49–16 — while Vaprus sit 6th with an 8–2–10 record and a 28–38 goal difference. Away, Levadia average 2.6 goals with xG 2.48, 21.5 shots per game with 7.4 on target and 57% possession; Vaprus at home average 1.8 goals with xG 1.26, 9.2 shots (4.2 on target) and 48% possession. Defensively the visitors hold a clear advantage — Levadia concede 0.9 goals away versus 1.7 conceded by Vaprus at home, and the visitors have 0% clean sheets? (note: original says matches without conceding) compared to 20% FTS for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Levadia have scored 16 goals (3.2 per game) and registered 4 wins, averaging 2.4 points per game, while Vaprus have scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and won 3 of 5, averaging 1.8 points per game. Considering the higher xG (2.48 vs 1.26), greater number of shots on target (7.4 vs 4.2) and superior defense (0.9 vs 1.7), I predict an away win; I propose chance distribution of 15% for Vaprus, 20% for a draw and 65% for Tallinna FC Levadia.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes stems from Tallinna FC Levadia’s season BTTS rate of 90% and average goals scored 2.6 per game (xG 2.48), while Vaprus has a season BTTS of 56% and an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals (avg 2.4). Both teams produce high xG values: 2.12 (Vaprus) and 2.48 (Levadia), total xG = 4.60, which indicates significant scoring potential and a higher likelihood of goals from both sides. Vaprus averages 17.9 shots (6.0 on target) versus Levadia’s 21.5 and 7.4 on target, with shot conversion rates of 14% vs 12%, supporting the Goal/Goal scenario. The only factor favoring No Goal is Levadia’s low average goals conceded of 0.9 for the season and 0.8 in the last 5, but Levadia’s high goals scored (49 this season) and the percentage of matches over 2.5 goals — 80% (Levadia) and 67% (Vaprus) — outweigh that. Therefore I forecast BTTS - Yes as more likely, with probability 78% vs 22% for No Goal.

Both teams display very offensive numbers: Vaprus averages 2.56 goals per game and Tallinna FC Levadia 2.60, with attacking xG of 2.12 and 2.48 respectively. A combined calculation linking attacking xG to the opponent’s defensive xG yields expected goals of 1.58 for the home side (2.12 vs 1.03) and 1.78 for the visitors (2.48 vs 1.08), totaling approximately 3.36 goals. Season-long rates of matches Over 1.5 are 100% for Vaprus and 90% for Levadia, while in the last 5 games the rate of matches Over 2.5 was 80% for the home team and 100% for the visitors, confirming a tendency toward high-scoring games. Additionally, Levadia averages 21.5 shots and 7.4 on target, and the percentages of matches with both teams scoring are 56% (Vaprus) and 90% (Levadia), which increases the likelihood of further goals; therefore the strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.

The strongest signal favors Tallinna FC Levadia: the visitors win 90% of matches and score an average of 2.6 goals per game, with xG 2.48 versus the hosts' 2.12 xG. In their last five matches Levadia led at the break in 100% of cases and averaged 2.2 goals by half-time, while Vaprus led at the break in only 40% of their last five and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time. A counterargument is that Vaprus rarely concedes by the break at home (0.11) and have 89% clean sheets at half-time in home matches, which increases the chances of a draw at the interval or a later turnaround. Considering Levadia’s advantage in first-half efficiency and current form, I project a lead at the break and a visiting win at full-time (HT/FT 2/2), estimating its probability at about 42%.