Varaždin vs Rijeka: match statistics

Varaždin are unbeaten at home after two matches, winning both and averaging 2 goals per game, while also allowing opponents chances worth an average of 1.44 xG, compared with their own xG of 1.22. The hosts are in good overall form, with 4 wins in their last 5 matches and 11 goals scored, but they have also conceded 6 goals during that period. Rijeka have an even stronger run of results, having won all 5 of their last matches, with a 7:1 goal difference over that stretch. Such a disciplined away defense could limit Varaždin’s attacking efficiency, as the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet despite averaging 3 shots on target per home game. Home advantage balances out Rijeka’s excellent current form, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal is Rijeka’s highly solid defense: they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while their average xG allowed stands at only 0.68. During the same period, BTTS landed in just 20% of Rijeka’s matches, whereas Varaždin saw this scenario in 60% of their games. Varaždin are efficient, averaging 2.2 goals across their last five appearances, but their xG of 1.50 will be tested by an opposition defense that consistently limits chances. Rijeka also create plenty themselves, with an average xG of 2.44 and 1.4 goals scored per match in their last five games, so the more likely outcome appears to be BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably the hosts—will fail to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Varaždin have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Rijeka have netted 1.4 goals per game. Rijeka have also been highly stable defensively, conceding just 0.2 goals per match during this period and allowing opponents an average xG of 0.68, which limits the hosts’ potential to around 1.15 goals. However, the visitors have created chances worth an average of 2.44 xG, while Varaždin have allowed opponents 1.52 xG, so their projected goal output remains higher at 1.55. In Varaždin’s matches, 3 of the last 5 exceeded 2.5 goals, but this occurred only once in Rijeka’s last 5, making the 2.5 line significantly more balanced. The combined projection of 2.70 goals strongly supports at least two goals, but does not provide an equally strong edge for the higher Over 2.5 or Over 3.5 lines.

Rijeka have won all of their last five matches, while Varaždin recorded four victories and one defeat over the same period. The visitors conceded an average of just 0.2 goals per game in their last five appearances and did not concede before half-time in any of them; Varaždin scored 1.2 goals before the break but also conceded 0.4. Rijeka held a lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches and kept a clean sheet after half-time in 80% of those games, reinforcing the scenario of control from start to finish. The hosts are an attacking threat, averaging 2.2 goals in their last five matches, but Rijeka’s exceptionally tight defense and the visitors’ perfect winning record point most strongly towards the 2/2 HT/FT outcome.