Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou E-Power: match statistics

Guangzhou E-Power sit top of the league and head into this fixture on a five-match unbeaten run, with three wins and two draws, while Yanbian Longding have lost 3 of their last 5 matches. The visitors have scored 13 goals and conceded just 3 during this period, compared with the hosts’ 8:10 record, clearly highlighting Guangzhou’s superior current balance. Away from home, the league leaders average 2.09 goals per match with a 17% shot conversion rate, compared with Yanbian’s 1.45 goals and 12% conversion rate at home. However, the hosts are difficult to beat on their own ground, having suffered defeats in only 9% of matches, although as many as 55% of their games end in draws. Guangzhou’s edge in the quality of chances created, with an xG of 1.51 versus 1.40, combined with their significantly more consistent form, points to an away win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: Yanbian Longding had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Guangzhou E-Power recorded 60%, compared with the league average of 56%. During this period, the hosts conceded 10 goals, or 2.0 per match, with an xG against of 1.68, giving the in-form visitors a realistic route to scoring. Guangzhou have recently averaged 2.6 goals per match and generated an xG of 1.67, while Yanbian have conceded just 0.67 goals per match across the season. On the other hand, the hosts average 1.92 goals per match for the season, generate a high xG of 2.03, and have failed to score in only 8% of their matches, making a home goal highly likely despite the opponents’ solid defense. The BTTS pick is nevertheless only moderately positive, as Guangzhou have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Yanbian’s season BTTS rate is just 42%.

Over 1.5 goals is strongly supported, as at least 2 goals were scored in 83% of Yanbian Longding’s matches and 82% of Guangzhou E-Power’s games. Guangzhou averaged 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Yanbian conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game during the same period. The hosts continue to create plenty of chances at home, averaging 19.08 shots and generating an xG of 2.03, although their current five-match xG average has fallen to 1.02. The risk for higher lines is Guangzhou’s solid defense, which has conceded just 0.6 goals across their last five appearances. Therefore, Over 2.5 goals is only moderately likely, while Over 1.5 offers the safest edge.

Guangzhou E-Power are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded over their last five matches, remaining unbeaten, while Yanbian Longding have lost 3 of their last 5 games and allowed opponents to score 2.0 goals per match. The visitors have started matches very strongly, leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, with an average of 1.6 goals scored before half-time and just 0.2 conceded. In addition, they kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of those matches, while the hosts scored only 0.8 goals before the break over the same period. The hosts’ season-long figures remain strong, particularly their xG of 2.03 compared with the opponents’ 1.51, meaning the draw/away win scenario also merits a high rating. However, Guangzhou’s current advantage primarily points towards the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match, i.e. the 1/1 HT/FT outcome.