12 de Junio VH vs Atlético Tembetary: match statistics

12 de Junio VH sit 2nd, while Atlético Tembetary are seventh, and the hosts have won 13 matches this season compared with the visitors’ 8 victories. At home, 12 de Junio create more chances, averaging 13.2 shots and 4.7 on target per match, compared with Atlético’s 10.18 shots and 3.36 on target away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.66, while the visitors allow 1.75 xG away from home and concede 1.55 goals per match. Atlético have been effective recently, scoring 9 goals and winning 3 of their last 5 matches, but they have also conceded as many as 11 goals during that period. The hosts should benefit from better ball control, averaging 58% possession compared with their opponents’ 54%, although the visitors’ recent form limits the extent of the advantage and increases the risk of a closely contested match.

The signal for both teams to score is positive, as BTTS occurred in 64% of 12 de Junio VH matches and 55% of Atlético Tembetary fixtures, compared with a league average of 55%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while their average goals scored stood at 1.6 and 1.8, respectively. The defenses are vulnerable: the hosts concede 1.55 goals per match over the season, whereas the visitors have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match across their last five appearances. At the same time, 12 de Junio VH keep a clean sheet in only 9% of matches, compared with 18% for Atlético Tembetary, significantly increasing the likelihood that both sides will find the net. Their attacking potential is also supported by xG figures of 1.40 for the hosts and 1.48 for the visitors, making BTTS - Yes the more likely scenario.

Both teams have an identical and high rate of matches with at least 2 goals: 73% each this season. The home side averages 1.40 xG, while Atlético Tembetary averages 1.48 xG, with the visitors’ defense conceding as much as 1.75 xG per match. In their last 5 matches, 12 de Junio scored 1.6 goals per game and Tembetary 1.8, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.2 goals during this period. The projected total of 2.98 goals is clearly above the league average of 2.59, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, combining stable season-long data with the attacking form of both teams, without requiring the assumption of a very open match with three or more goals.

12 de Junio VH have a clearly stronger recent first-half performance: in their previous five matches, they were leading at the break in 50% of cases and did not trail in any of them, while Atlético Tembetary were behind at half-time in 40% of their matches. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.0 goals before the break and conceded just 0.25, whereas the visitors conceded as many as 1.2 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the opponent’s defensive quality, as Atlético Tembetary allow an average xG of 1.75, compared with the 1.40 xG created by 12 de Junio VH. After the interval, the visitors are more dangerous, scoring an average of 0.91 goals, but they also concede 1.09, meaning their potential to complete a turnaround is offset by defensive errors. With the hosts recording a 40% win rate and the visitors suffering defeats in as many as 45% of matches this season, the most likely scenario remains 12 de Junio VH leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage until full-time.