12 de Junio VH vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

12 de Junio VH sits 7th while Fernando de la Mora is 12th. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 4 goals versus only 2 for the visitors. The hosts average 1.2 points over the last 5 matches compared to 0.4 for the guests, indicating a clear advantage in point accumulation. Defensively, 12 de Junio VH conceded 5 goals in their last 5 outings, while Fernando de la Mora conceded 8, meaning the hosts have 3 fewer goals conceded in this period. Over the season the hosts have 1 goal for and 1 against, while the visitors have 0 scored and 2 conceded, which confirms the visitors’ lower offensive efficiency. Missing data on average shots per game (value 0 for both teams) limits assessment of chance quality, but the aggregate indicators (league position, 1.2 vs 0.4 points and 4–2 in the last 5) favor a home win.

In the last 5 matches BTTS was 20% for 12 de Junio VH and 40% for Fernando de la Mora, meaning both teams score simultaneously less often than the league average. The home side scored 4 goals in 5 matches (0.8 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0), while the visitors scored 2 goals (0.4) and conceded 8 (1.6), indicating that Fernando primarily struggles to score. xG-based values over the last 5 matches are 1.01 xG for the home team and 0.94 xG for the visitors with xG against of 0.63 and 1.11 respectively; xG suggests moderate scoring potential, but actual conversion is lower. The league has 60% BTTS and an average of 3.5 goals per match, yet both teams significantly deviate from these norms (especially the visitors: 2 goals in 5 matches), therefore the dominant signal is that at least one team is likely to remain without a goal (No Goal / clean sheet expected for one side).

The model based on the last 5 matches yields expected xG: home 1.06 (home attack average 1.01 vs opponents’ conceded xG 1.11), away 0.79 (away attack average 0.94 vs hosts’ conceded xG 0.63), total ~1.85 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=1.85 indicates the probability of at most 2 goals is about 71.7% (hence Under 2.5 ≈72%), while 3+ goals is ~28% (Over 2.5 ≈28%). Supporting the under are the last 5 matches: home score on average 0.8 goals (gf_last5_home=4), away 0.4 goals (gf_last5_away=2), with 5 and 8 goals conceded respectively in those five games. Seasonal data for the hosts show season xG 1.59 and on average 11 shots with 4 on target, but seasonally 100% of home matches had >1.5 goals and 0% had >2.5, suggesting matches most often finish at two goals, not three. Based on this, the strongest signal from the data is Under at the 2.5 line (selection: under 2.5) with a probabilistic estimate of about 72%.

Data indicate that 12 de Junio VH were trailing at half-time in 100% of matches (trailingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0) and concede on average 1.0 goal by the break (concededAVGHT_home = 1.0), so the visitors leading after 45 minutes is highly likely. Over the full match the hosts concede on average 2.0 goals (seasonConcededAVG_home = 2.0) and have negative expected goals: xG 1.59 versus xG against 2.14 (xg_for_avg_home = 1.59, xg_against_avg_home = 2.14), implying an xG deficit of approximately 0.55 per game. Despite 11.0 shots and 4.0 shots on target per match (shotsAVG_home = 11.0, shotsOnTargetAVG_home = 4.0), the hosts have a conversion rate of 0.0 (shot_conversion_rate_home = 0.0), which hinders comebacks and suggests poor finishing. Seasonally the hosts have a 100% loss rate (losePercentage_home = 100.0), while the visitors have no losses in the seasonal data (losePercentage_away = 0.0), so the full-time result leans toward an away win. Consequently the strongest signal is a visitors’ lead at half-time and an away win at full-time (HT/FT = 2/2).