3 de Noviembre vs Atlético Tembetary: match statistics

Atlético Tembetary sit 9th, while 3 de Noviembre are bottom of the table in 16th place, with the hosts yet to win any of their 18 matches this season. 3 de Noviembre’s form is particularly poor: they have lost their last five games, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 10. The visitors average 1.33 goals per away game compared with the hosts’ 0.89 at home, while also enjoying more possession (54% to 43%) and registering more shots, 9.22 to 8.00. Tembetary’s defence also appears more reliable, conceding 1.22 goals per away match compared with the hosts’ 1.56 at home, although the visitors’ high xG against of 1.80 increases the risk of a draw. Nevertheless, the season-long quality advantage and the hosts’ disastrous current run point to a greater likelihood of an away win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor goals from both sides: they stand at 67% for 3 de Noviembre and 56% for Atlético Tembetary, exactly matching the league average. The hosts concede an average of 1.56 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of their games, so the visitors should have solid chances of scoring. Atlético Tembetary’s average xG is 1.43, while 3 de Noviembre allow opponents 1.52 xG, further strengthening the outlook for an away goal. A warning sign is the hosts’ poor current attacking form: they have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches and recorded BTTS in 40% of games. However, their xG remains at 1.34, while their opponents allow an average of 1.51 xG. The BTTS scenario is therefore slightly more likely, although 3 de Noviembre’s recent form limits the strength of this edge.

The 2.50-goal projection is primarily driven by Atlético Tembetary’s attacking advantage: the visitors average 1.43 xG, while 3 de Noviembre allow opponents 1.52 xG. However, the hosts are in very poor scoring form, having netted just 2 goals in their last five matches, or 0.4 per game, despite averaging 1.34 xG. Lines above 3.5 goals have not been frequent this season: 44% of 3 de Noviembre’s matches and 33% of Tembetary’s matches finished that way, favoring a scenario with a maximum of three goals. In addition, both teams average only 3.33 and 3.00 shots on target per match, respectively, so although goals should be scored, the volume of chances does not point to a four-goal game.

Atlético Tembetary are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while 3 de Noviembre have scored just 0.4 goals, conceded 2.0, and lost all five games. The visitors are also more consistent after half-time, averaging 0.78 goals in the second half this season compared with the hosts’ 0.56, while over their last five matches their post-break record stands at 1.2 points per game against just 0.2 for the hosts. Tembetary’s advantage is also evident in chance quality, with an average xG of 1.43, while 3 de Noviembre’s defence allows opponents 1.52 xG. Both teams were level at half-time in 56% of their league matches, but recently the hosts have been trailing at the break in 40% of games, whereas the visitors have been leading in 20%. The strongest scenario therefore remains Atlético Tembetary leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through full-time, although the high probability of a first-half draw remains a significant alternative.