3 de Noviembre vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

3 de Noviembre are only 13th in the table, but they have won 3 of their last five matches and conceded just 4 goals; Fernando de la Mora have recorded 2 wins and conceded 7 goals over the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.38 goals per match, while the visitors average 1.23 away from home. However, the away side hold a slight edge in chance creation, with an xG of 1.44 compared to the hosts’ 1.35. 3 de Noviembre’s home shot-conversion rate also works in their favour: 15% compared to Fernando de la Mora’s 12% away from home, while their average goals conceded is slightly lower at 1.31 versus 1.46. However, the hosts draw as many as 54% of their home matches, so despite their better recent form, a draw remains a significant possibility.

Both teams have scored at similar rates: 3 de Noviembre in 57% of matches and Fernando de la Mora in 54%, compared with the league average of 56%. Over their last 5 matches, the figure was 60% for each team, and both averaged 1.4 goals per match during that period. The home side generate an average of 1.68 xG, while the visitors produce 1.44 xG, pointing to scoring chances at both ends; the visitors also concede an average of 1.46 goals per season. The risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is that the home side failed to score in 29% of matches and the visitors in 31%. However, the combined season data and recent results give a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 79% of 3 de Noviembre’s matches and 69% of Fernando de la Mora’s fixtures. Both teams have scored relatively few goals this season, averaging 1.00 and 1.23 per match, respectively, although their average xG figures of 1.68 and 1.44 point to greater potential than their finishing record suggests. Over their last five matches, each team has averaged 1.4 goals scored, but only 40% of those games finished Over 2.5 goals. The forecast total of 2.44 goals, below the league average of 2.59, supports backing Under 3.5 goals without assuming the match has to be goalless.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 69% for the visitors. Both teams scored relatively few first-half goals, averaging 0.36 and 0.38 respectively, which further points to a closely contested start. After the break, the advantage could shift towards 3 de Noviembre: the hosts won the second half in 36% of their matches, while Fernando de la Mora lost it in 46% and conceded an average of 1.08 goals. The hosts’ recent form also supports a home win: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.0 points against the visitors’ 1.4, and their xG stands at 1.68 compared with their opponents’ 1.44. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a home win is the strongest single HT/FT scenario, although the 19% probability assigned to a draw in both halves indicates that the advantage is not substantial.