3 de Noviembre vs Sol de América: match statistics

Sol de América sit 5th, while 3 de Noviembre are only 15th, and over the course of the season the visitors have lost just 2 of 22 matches, compared with 12 defeats for the hosts. Away from home, Sol de América win 45% of their matches and score an average of 1.64 goals, while 3 de Noviembre win just 18% of their home fixtures. The visitors are also more consistent defensively, conceding 1.09 goals per match away from home, compared with the hosts’ 1.45 goals conceded on home soil. Their solidity is further confirmed by the last five matches: Sol de América remain unbeaten, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws, having conceded only 3 goals. The hosts have improved offensively, scoring 13 goals in their last five matches, but their lower home xG of 1.24 compared with the visitors’ 1.36 away from home, as well as a 55% draw rate in front of their own fans, also increases the risk of a share of the points.

The signal for both sides to score is clear, as BTTS has occurred in 55% of 3 de Noviembre’s matches this season and in as many as 73% of Sol de América’s fixtures, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while the hosts averaged 2.6 goals scored, though they also conceded 1.6. Sol de América average 1.64 goals per match, while 3 de Noviembre, despite a low season average of 0.82, create chances worth 1.71 xG and register 4.64 shots on target per game. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches, but their recent defensive figures—1.51 xG conceded and 1.6 goals conceded per game—increase the likelihood of the visitors scoring. The BTTS - Yes pick is stronger, although the main risk is Sol de América’s solid recent defence, having conceded just 0.6 goals per game across their last five appearances.

The home side’s season profile is very low-scoring: in 100% of their matches, there were no more than 3.5 goals, and they concede just 0.55 goals on average. Sol de América do average 1.64 goals, but their opponent has kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. On the away side, 64% of matches also finished under 3.5 goals, while their defense concedes an average of 1.09 goals. 3 de Noviembre’s last five matches were more open, averaging 4.2 goals with 80% of results going Over 2.5, but Sol de América conceded only 0.6 goals per match over the same period. The projected total of 2.35 goals points to a scoreline closer to 1:1 or 2:1 than an end-to-end shootout, making Under 3.5 the clearest value pick.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a 3 de Noviembre victory, as Sol de América were level at the break in 64% of their matches, compared with 55% for the hosts. However, the pre-half-time defensive record slightly favours the home side: they concede just 0.27 goals, while the visitors allow opponents 0.55 goals. Recent form clearly strengthens the case for a turnaround after the break: 3 de Noviembre have averaged 2.6 goals over their last five matches and won three of them, whereas Sol de América have scored only 1.0 goal per game. The hosts have improved particularly after half-time, averaging 1.6 goals in second halves recently, while the visitors have managed just 0.4 goals during that period. Although Sol de América have the better full-season scoring record, averaging 1.64 goals scored compared with 0.82 for the hosts, their 60% draw rate across their last five matches points to an even opening and a subsequent advantage for the home side.