9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá: match statistics
9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
9 de Octubre played Cumbayá in Primera Categoría Serie B (Ecuador). The match was played on 29 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
9 de Octubre: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Cumbayá: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
9 de Octubre scores 1.17 and concedes 0.83 goals per match. Cumbayá scores 1.33 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: 9 de Octubre 33%, Cumbayá 100%. Over 2.5: 9 de Octubre 33%, Cumbayá 67%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
9 de Octubre has higher xG: 1.24 vs 0.93. 9 de Octubre: 10.2 shots per match, Cumbayá: 4.2.
Match halves
9 de Octubre: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67. Cumbayá: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
9 de Octubre: 76-90+ (3 goals). Cumbayá: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera Categoría Serie B: 2.00 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win. 9 de Octubre averages 2.0 goals per home match with xG 1.51, produces 12 shots (4.67 on target) and has a 17% conversion rate, while Cumbayá away records an average of 8 shots (5 on target), 13% conversion and xG 1.13. Defensively the hosts are stronger — they concede 1.33 goals at home with xG against 0.81, whereas the visitors concede 2.0 goals away with xG against 1.72, indicating greater vulnerability in Cumbayá’s defense. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 and average 1.8 points over their last 5 matches, while Cumbayá averages 1.2 points in their last 5 and, per season data, have no away wins yet (0 wins, 100% losses). Considering the clearly superior attacking efficiency, higher volume of chances (12 vs 8) and more stable home defense, I estimate probabilities of 65% for the home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have BTTS at 100% this season (9 de Octubre 100% and Cumbayá 100%) and clean sheets at 0% for both sides, strongly favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. Goal averages show 9 de Octubre scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.25 per match, while Cumbayá scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0 — both teams regularly concede. In the last 5 matches 9 de Octubre scored 9 goals (1.8 avg.) and conceded 5 (1.0), and Cumbayá scored 5 (1.0) and conceded 5 (1.0), confirming both teams create chances against each other. xG and shots also suggest open play: xG_for 0.86 vs 1.13 and xG_against 0.8 vs 1.72, with 2 on-target shots for the home side versus 5 on-target for the away side. Considering 100% season BTTS, 0% clean sheets and last5 BTTS 40% for the home team and 80% for the away, I assess BTTS probability at 85% vs 15% and recommend "BTTS - Yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project a total of approximately 2.54 goals: home 1.51 vs away 1.03, calculated as the average of three approaches (xG: home 0.86 vs away 1.13; season goals average: 1.5 vs 1.0; xG against opponent: away concede on average 1.72 vs home 0.8). Both teams have 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals and 100% BTTS, which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5. The Poisson model for a 2.54 total yields about a 47% chance of 3+ goals (Over 2.5), but season Over 2.5 rates are 50% for 9 de Octubre and 100% for Cumbayá, so combining these signals I assign a 60% probability to Over 2.5. The chance for Over 3.5 is significantly lower: Poisson shows ~25%, and seasonally 9 de Octubre has 25% such matches versus 0% for the opponent, therefore I rate Over 3.5 at 25%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (98% vs 2%) — hosts score on average 1.5 at home, guests 1.0 away, both teams record 100% BTTS and the expected 2.54 goals is clearly above 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics show a clear home advantage at the break: hosts led at halftime in 50% of matches and average 1.0 goal by halftime while conceding only 0.25, whereas visitors average 0 first-half goals. Hosts are more efficient in chance conversion (26% versus 13% for visitors) and are in better form (3 wins in the last 5), while visitors have a 0% win rate this season and concede on average 2.0 goals per match. Although visitors generate slightly higher xG and more shots on target (xG 1.13 vs 0.86 and 5.0 shots on target versus 2.0 for hosts), their lower finishing efficiency limits their offensive benefit. The second half presents some risk of the hosts losing their lead (hosts concede on average 1.0 goal after the break), so I assign a small probability to a draw after a halftime lead and to a turnaround. As a result, I attribute the highest probability (38%) to the 1/1 outcome as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| 9 de Octubre | Cumbayá | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.89 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
9 de Octubre is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - 9 de Octubre · 1 pts / match - Cumbayá
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Cumbayá is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - 9 de Octubre · 1.33 goals / match - Cumbayá
9 de Octubre is 81% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.83 goals / match - 9 de Octubre · 1.5 goals / match - Cumbayá
9 de Octubre scores in 67% of matches (4 of 6 matches), while Cumbayá keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
Cumbayá scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while 9 de Octubre keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - 9 de Octubre
Over / Under - Cumbayá
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Cumbayá is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - 9 de Octubre · 1.67 pts / match - Cumbayá
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
9 de Octubre - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cumbayá - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
9 de Octubre
Cumbayá
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera Categoría Serie B).
Teams vs league
| 9 de Octubre | Liga | Cumbayá | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.00 | ▲ 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 50% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 33% | 33% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 33% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): 9 de Octubre 0 - 0 - 2 Cumbayá. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of 9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá?
The Primera Categoría Serie B match finished 9 de Octubre 1:0 Cumbayá. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between 9 de Octubre and Cumbayá?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches 9 de Octubre won 0, Cumbayá won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before 9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá?
9 de Octubre score 1.17 goals per game on average and Cumbayá 1.33. The Primera Categoría Serie B average is 2.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 33% of 9 de Octubre's matches and 100% of Cumbayá's.
What form are 9 de Octubre and Cumbayá in?
Over the last 5 games 9 de Octubre have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Cumbayá 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for 9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá?
The statistical background for 9 de Octubre vs Cumbayá — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.