Aalesund vs Fredrikstad: match statistics
Aalesund vs Fredrikstad: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Aalesund played Fredrikstad in Eliteserien (Norway). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Aalesund: 0-1-1, 0.50 points/match. Fredrikstad: 1-0-1, 1.50 points/match.
Goal statistics
Aalesund scores 1.00 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Fredrikstad scores 1.50 and concedes 2.50. League average: 2.84 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Aalesund 100%, Fredrikstad 50%. Over 2.5: Aalesund 50%, Fredrikstad 100%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Aalesund has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.31. Aalesund: 12.5 shots per match, Fredrikstad: 10.0.
Match halves
Aalesund: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.00. Fredrikstad: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.00.
Goals by minute
Aalesund: 0-15 (2 goals). Fredrikstad: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eliteserien: 2.84 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1). Aalesund generates significantly more chances than Fredrikstad: on average 14 shots and 7 shots on target per home match versus 6 shots and only 1 shot on target away for Fredrikstad, with average xG of 1.64 for Aalesund and 0.87 for Fredrikstad. The hosts average 1 goal at home and have 0% games without scoring, while Fredrikstad average 0 goals away and have recorded 100% games without scoring, which strongly favors Aalesund. Defensively Fredrikstad look worse — they concede an average of 4 goals away and as many as 14 goals in the last 5 matches, compared to 3 conceded by Aalesund at home and 8 in their last 5 fixtures. Considering the home advantage in quality of chances (7 shots on target to 1), higher xG (1.64–0.87) and better average points over the last 5 matches (1.4 vs 1.2), I assign Aalesund approximately a 65% chance to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Aalesund averages 3.0 goals per home game this season and has an xG of 1.75 with 7.0 shots on target and 14.0 shots overall, while Fredrikstad has season xG_for 0.87, only 1.0 shot on target and 6.0 shots, indicating a clear home advantage in chance creation. Aalesund’s seasonal BTTS at home is 100% and 80% in the last 5 matches, whereas Fredrikstad has season BTTS 0% but 60% in the last 5 and 7 goals in those 5 matches (1.4 per game), so recent form gives mixed signals. Defensively Fredrikstad looks weak — they conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game) and have a season xG_against of 1.95, while Aalesund conceded 8 goals in the last 5 (1.6 per game). Additionally Aalesund posts a high conversion rate of 21% season-to-date, and the league BTTS level is 54%, so given the shot volume advantage and Fredrikstad’s poor defense the Both Teams To Score outcome is more likely; I place 75% on BTTS - Yes and 25% on No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and defensive metrics projects 1.85 goals for Aalesund (xG_for 1.75 vs Fredrikstad xG_against 1.95) and 1.27 for Fredrikstad (xG_for 0.87 vs Aalesund xG_against 1.67), totaling 3.12 goals. Aalesund averages 14 shots and 7 on target (21% conversion), while Fredrikstad records 6 shots and 1 on target; Fredrikstad have conceded 14 goals in their last 5 away matches (2.8 per match). A Poisson distribution with λ=3.12 yields probability for Over 1.5 ≈82% (Under 18%), Over 2.5 ≈60% (Under 40%) and Over 3.5 ≈38% (Under 62%). Since the projected 3.12 is above the league average of 3.0 and Aalesund holds a clear xG advantage (1.75 vs 0.87) and superiority in shots on target (7 vs 1), the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals each (14 total), and BTTS rates in the last 5 are 80% for the home side and 60% for the away side, which further supports backing Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics heavily favor Aalesund: average goals scored per season are 3.0 versus 0.0 for Fredrikstad, home xG is 1.75 versus 0.87 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 7.0 vs 1.0 — a clear offensive advantage. Aalesund have led at the break in 100% of their matches and average 3.0 goals in the first half, while Fredrikstad average 0.0 goals by halftime, which strongly supports the home team leading after 45 minutes. Additionally, the hosts have a shot conversion rate of 21.0% versus 0.0% for the visitors and generate more xG (1.75 vs 0.87), while Fredrikstad have not recorded a single win this season (0.0%) and concede an average of 4.0 goals per match, so a turnaround is unlikely. Based on this, I assign the scenario of Aalesund leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1) the highest probability — 72%, with 18% for 1/X and 5% for 1/2 as realistic alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Aalesund | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fredrikstad is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.5 pts / match - Aalesund · 1.5 pts / match - Fredrikstad
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fredrikstad is 50% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Aalesund · 1.5 goals / match - Fredrikstad
Aalesund is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Aalesund · 2.5 goals / match - Fredrikstad
Aalesund scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Fredrikstad keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
Fredrikstad scores in 50% of matches (1 of 2 matches), while Aalesund keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aalesund
Over / Under - Fredrikstad
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aalesund is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2 pts / match - Aalesund · 1.5 pts / match - Fredrikstad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aalesund - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Fredrikstad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 0% |
| No goal | 0% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Average goals in match | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eliteserien).
Teams vs league
| Aalesund | Liga | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.84 | ▲ 4.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 47% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 84% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 68% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Aalesund vs Fredrikstad?
The Eliteserien match finished Aalesund 2:3 Fredrikstad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Aalesund vs Fredrikstad?
Aalesund score 1.00 goals per game on average and Fredrikstad 1.50. The Eliteserien average is 2.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 100% of Aalesund's matches and 50% of Fredrikstad's.
What form are Aalesund and Fredrikstad in?
Over the last 5 games Aalesund have a 0-1-1 record (0.50 points per game) and Fredrikstad 1-0-1 (1.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aalesund vs Fredrikstad?
The statistical background for Aalesund vs Fredrikstad — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.