Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08: match statistics

Aalesund are only 14th in the table, but have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while ninth-placed Sarpsborg 08 have managed just 1 win over the same period. At home, Aalesund average 2 goals and generate an xG of 1.99, while Sarpsborg score 1.09 goals away from home with an xG of 1.34. Aalesund’s edge in chance creation is also reflected in their average of 6.36 shots on target at home, compared with Sarpsborg’s 3.91 away. Their defence remains a concern, however: Aalesund concede 2.36 goals per home match, and as many as 55% of their home games end in a draw. Even so, their more potent attack and recent form give Aalesund a slight edge, although a draw remains a very realistic outcome.

BTTS - Yes landed in 70% of Aalesund’s matches and 55% of Sarpsborg 08’s, rising to 80% and 60% respectively across their last five matches. Aalesund have recently averaged 2.0 goals per match, while Sarpsborg have conceded 1.2, which points to a home goal. The visitors averaged 1.2 goals scored over this period, while Aalesund conceded 1.6; additionally, Sarpsborg’s average xG was 1.66, compared with 1.89 xG allowed by the hosts. The main concern is that Sarpsborg failed to score in 36% of their matches this season. However, recent results and the number of chances created suggest that both teams are more likely to score.

At least 2 goals were scored in 70% of Aalesund’s matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08’s, providing a strong basis for backing Over 1.5 goals. The hosts average 1.67 xG and 5.1 shots on target, while the visitors allow opponents 1.68 xG, giving Aalesund a chance to create several opportunities. Sarpsborg average 1.34 xG, and Aalesund allow opponents 1.59 xG; moreover, the hosts have conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last 5 matches. The projected total of 2.82 goals favors Over 1.5, but Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 50% of Aalesund’s matches and 55% of Sarpsborg’s, making the lower line the clearer option.

The strongest scenario is Aalesund leading at the break and winning the match: the hosts led at half-time in 40% of their home games, while Sarpsborg 08 were trailing at the break in 27% of their away matches. Aalesund averaged 0.90 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors conceded an average of 0.91 goals during that period. The hosts also hold the edge in average xG, at 1.67 compared with their opponents’ 1.34, and in shots on target per match, at 5.10 versus 3.91. Aalesund have won three of their last five matches, while Sarpsborg 08 have won only once. In addition, the visitors failed to win the second half in any of the analysed away matches, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will hold on to their lead. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, having occurred in 50% of the hosts’ home games and 55% of the visitors’ away matches; however, Aalesund’s advantage makes 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.