Aalesund vs Start: match statistics

Aalesund have a clear attacking edge at home: they average 2.00 goals per match and generate 1.91 xG, while Start score 1.11 goals away from home with 1.31 xG. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 18.1 shots and 5.8 shots on target per game, compared with Start’s 11.78 shots and 3.78 on target. Both defences are highly vulnerable, with Aalesund conceding 2.60 goals at home and Start 2.67 away, while both sides have a 0% clean-sheet rate. Start have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, but their away record remains poor: defeats in 78% of matches and just 11% wins. Aalesund have also failed to impress in terms of results, but draws in 60% of their home fixtures, combined with the higher quality of their chances created, give them a slight edge, although an open game increases the risk of a share of the points.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have scored in 56% of Aalesund’s matches and as many as 78% of Start’s, compared with the league average of 56%. Start have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.67 goals per match, which significantly increases Aalesund’s chances of scoring. The hosts are also defensively vulnerable, averaging 1.67 goals conceded and recording just 11% clean sheets, while Start create an average of 1.31 xG. Current form further supports goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 80% of Aalesund’s and 60% of Start’s last five matches, while the hosts scored an average of 4.4 goals. Although Start fail to score regularly in 22% of matches, the combination of both teams’ weak defences and high recent xG figures of 1.70 and 1.98 makes the "Yes" option more likely. BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically indicate a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

Aalesund creates chances worth an average of 1.58 xG at home, while Start allows opponents 1.84 xG away from home and concedes as many as 2.67 goals per match. The visitors score an average of 1.11 goals, but Aalesund’s defense allows opponents 1.67 goals, supporting a both-teams-to-score scenario. In their last five matches, both teams had 80% of games with at least three goals, while Aalesund scored as many as 4.4 goals per match during this period. However, the 1.5 line has the strongest support in the season data: Over 1.5 goals landed in 89% of Aalesund’s matches and in all of Start’s matches. The 3.10-goal projection provides a clear edge for Over 1.5, even with a potential decline from the hosts’ recent, exceptionally high scoring efficiency.

The strongest scenario is Aalesund leading at half-time and maintaining their winning position, as the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes in 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals during that period. Start lose as many as 78% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.67 goals, while keeping no clean sheets. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG is 1.58 compared with Start’s 1.31, while Aalesund average 15.11 shots per match against 11.78 for the visitors. The risk of a Start turnaround remains significant, as Aalesund concede an average of 1.67 goals across the season, while Start allow opponents as many as 1.89 goals per match after half-time. Therefore, the 1/1 outcome has the highest probability, although the high number of goals in the hosts’ recent matches increases the likelihood of alternative outcomes.