Abha vs Jeddah: match statistics

I back the home win because Abha top the table with 22 wins this season versus Jeddah’s 8 and a +29 goal difference (59–30). At home Abha averages 2.14 goals per match with xG 1.61 and records 11.71 shots (5 on target) per game, while Jeddah away average is 1.5 goals, xG 0.93 and 7.93 shots (3.36 on target). Defensively Abha concede only 0.86 goals at home and have conceded 4 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas Jeddah concede 1.14 goals away and as many as 12 goals in their last 5 fixtures, which strongly favors the hosts. Additionally Jeddah fail to score in 21% of away games versus 7% for Abha, and they have a lower points pace in the last 5 matches (1.2 vs 2.2). I therefore assess the probabilities as approximately 75% for Abha, 15% draw and 10% for Jeddah.

I predict BTTS - Yes with a 55% probability vs 45% No. Abha have BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.8 on average (last5 xG_for 1.64, xG_against 1.15), indicating the hosts can create chances while still allowing opponents opportunities. Jeddah have a season BTTS rate of 64% and score 1.5 per match with 1.14 conceded, but in their last five games BTTS dropped to 20%, with just 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded (last5 xG_for 0.72, xG_against 1.71), which reduces their likelihood to find the net. Supporting the Yes bet is the league BTTS benchmark of 62% and a league average goals of 2.93, while seasonally Abha and Jeddah sit at 50% and 64% BTTS respectively. Considering Abha’s strong recent signals and the high league share of matches with both teams scoring, the Both Teams To Score scenario looks more probable.

The forecast is based on xG and form: Abha has season xG_for 1.18 versus Jeddah xG_against 1.47, yielding an approximate expected_goals for the home side ≈(1.18+1.47)/2 = 1.33; for Jeddah: (0.93+1.34)/2 ≈1.13, total ≈2.46 goals. Despite season average goals scored Abha 0.64 vs Jeddah 1.50, Abha’s last 5 matches show 8 goals (1.6 per match) and last5 xG 1.64, while Jeddah has only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6) and last5 xG 0.72, so the home side’s form is superior. Season over percentages show 79% for Abha and 71% for Jeddah on the 1.5 line, hence a strong probability for Over 1.5 (78%). Over 2.5 is more balanced (seasonal 36%/64% → ~50%, therefore I give a slight edge to Over 2.5 = 52%), whereas Over 3.5 remains unlikely (seasonal 21%/29%, forecast 24%).

Abha scores an average of 0.14 goals by half-time versus 0.50 for Jeddah, and the home side lead at the break in 0% of their matches while Jeddah lead at the break in 29% of games, indicating an away advantage already after the first 45 minutes. Over the full match the visitors hold a clear edge: seasonal goals per game 1.50 (Jeddah) versus 0.64 (Abha), win rates 43% vs 14% and points per game 1.57 vs 0.86, therefore Jeddah are the favorites. In the second half Jeddah average 1.0 goal compared to 0.5 for Abha, and although the hosts have a higher xG (1.18 vs 0.93) their shot conversion is poor (7% vs 19%), so the visitors are more likely to turn the game after the break. My convolution simulation of first-half and second-half goals yields the highest probability for the HT/FT scenario 2/2 at approximately 30%, then X/2 at about 28% and X/1 around 10%. Based on this data the strongest signal is the 2/2 pick (away side leading at half-time and winning full-time).