Abia Warriors vs Kwara United: match statistics
Abia Warriors holds a decisive advantage in home matches with a 46% win rate and an impressive 69% clean sheets, conceding an average of just 0.38 goals per match. The hosts have a significantly better xG balance (1.63 vs 0.92) and offensive efficiency compared to the visitors. Kwara United has a disastrous away form with 0% wins, 69% losses, and a negative goal difference of -12, failing to score in 69% of away matches. The hosts have a positive goal difference of +8 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.31 goals away. The form in the last five matches also favors Abia Warriors, although not perfect, it is still better than Kwara United's series of away defeats. All key statistical indicators clearly point to a home victory, although a draw remains a realistic scenario due to Abia Warriors' high percentage of draws at home (46%).
Abia Warriors vs Kwara United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Abia Warriors played Kwara United in NPFL (Nigeria). The match was played on 22 February 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Abia Warriors: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Kwara United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Abia Warriors scores 0.81 and concedes 0.69 goals per match. Kwara United scores 0.81 and concedes 0.92. League average: 1.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Abia Warriors 27%, Kwara United 35%. Over 2.5: Abia Warriors 12%, Kwara United 19%. League level: BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 26%.
xG, shots and style
Abia Warriors has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.04. Abia Warriors: 6.3 shots per match, Kwara United: 4.2.
Match halves
Abia Warriors: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.42. Kwara United: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.35.
Goals by minute
Abia Warriors: 31-45+ (5 goals). Kwara United: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NPFL: 1.82 goals per match, BTTS 36%, Over 2.5 26%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Abia Warriors holds a decisive advantage in home matches with a 46% win rate and an impressive 69% clean sheets, conceding an average of just 0.38 goals per match. The hosts have a significantly better xG balance (1.63 vs 0.92) and offensive efficiency compared to the visitors. Kwara United has a disastrous away form with 0% wins, 69% losses, and a negative goal difference of -12, failing to score in 69% of away matches. The hosts have a positive goal difference of +8 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.31 goals away. The form in the last five matches also favors Abia Warriors, although not perfect, it is still better than Kwara United's series of away defeats. All key statistical indicators clearly point to a home victory, although a draw remains a realistic scenario due to Abia Warriors' high percentage of draws at home (46%).
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Abia Warriors | Kwara United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 25% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.78 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kwara United is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Abia Warriors · 1 pts / match - Kwara United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Abia Warriors is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.69 goals / match - Abia Warriors · 0.92 goals / match - Kwara United
Abia Warriors scores in 65% of matches (17 of 26 matches), while Kwara United keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
Kwara United scores in 50% of matches (13 of 26 matches), while Abia Warriors keeps a clean sheet in 50% (13 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Abia Warriors
Over / Under - Kwara United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Abia Warriors is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Abia Warriors · 1.27 pts / match - Kwara United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Abia Warriors - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kwara United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Abia Warriors
Kwara United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NPFL).
Teams vs league
| Abia Warriors | Liga | Kwara United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.50 | 1.82 | • 1.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 27% | 36% | • 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 12% | 26% | ▼ 19% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 39% | ▼ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 42% | 59% | ▲ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 69% | 59% | ▼ 54% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Abia Warriors 1 - 0 - 0 Kwara United. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Abia Warriors vs Kwara United?
The NPFL match finished Abia Warriors 1:0 Kwara United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Abia Warriors vs Kwara United?
Abia Warriors score 0.81 goals per game on average and Kwara United 0.81. The NPFL average is 1.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 26% of games. Both teams score in 27% of Abia Warriors's matches and 35% of Kwara United's.
What form are Abia Warriors and Kwara United in?
Over the last 5 games Abia Warriors have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Kwara United 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Abia Warriors vs Kwara United?
The statistical background for Abia Warriors vs Kwara United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.