AC Milan vs Bologna: match statistics
AC Milan vs Bologna: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AC Milan played Bologna in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 28 October 2026. Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Final score: 2:4.
Current form
AC Milan: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Bologna: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
AC Milan scores 2.00 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Bologna scores 1.00 and concedes 1.25. League average: 3.12 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AC Milan 63%, Bologna 50%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 50%, Bologna 38%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
AC Milan has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.28. AC Milan: 13.1 shots per match, Bologna: 12.1.
Match halves
AC Milan: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.50. Bologna: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
AC Milan: 61-75 (10 goals). Bologna: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 3.12 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AC Milan sit 4th and remain unbeaten after 7 league matches, while 15th-placed Bologna have won just 1 of their 7 games. The hosts have won all 3 of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2.67 goals and conceding 0.67; Bologna have lost 2 of their 3 away games and averaged just 0.67 goals scored. Milan average 5 shots on target per home match with a 22% conversion rate, compared with the visitors' 3.33 shots on target and 7% conversion rate away from home. Although the hosts are scoring more than their home xG of 1.43 suggests, Bologna allow chances worth an average of 1.47 xG away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. Milan have a clear edge, but their 6 goals conceded in the last 5 matches leave the visitors with a chance to score.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest indication against both teams scoring is Bologna’s away scoring record: they average 0.67 goals and have failed to score in 67% of their away matches. AC Milan average 1.0 goal per home game, but Bologna also concede an average of 1.0 goal away from home, so a home goal does not guarantee an away goal. Supporting BTTS - Yes is Milan’s weaker defensive record, conceding an average of 1.75 goals at home, and the fact that Bologna have averaged 1.2 goals across their last five matches. Despite these arguments for an away goal, Bologna’s away BTTS rate is only 33%, making it slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: none of Bologna’s matches so far have gone over this line, while this has happened in 50% of Milan’s matches. The visitors average 0.67 goals and have failed to score in 67% of their matches, limiting the chances of a very high-scoring game. Milan create chances worth an average of 1.42 xG, while Bologna allow opponents 1.47 xG, giving the hosts greater attacking potential. However, caution is warranted: over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of Milan’s and 60% of Bologna’s last five matches. The forecast of 1.55 goals for the hosts and 0.95 for the visitors gives a total of 2.50, so despite the recent run of high-scoring games, Under 3.5 goals remains the safest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: it occurred in 50% of Milan’s home matches and 67% of Bologna’s away fixtures. The visitors have yet to concede in the first half away from home, although Milan led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches regardless of venue, so an early home lead remains a realistic possibility. Milan’s average of 1.2 goals scored in the second halves of their last 5 matches supports a win after the break, while Bologna conceded an average of 1.2 goals after half-time over the same period. Milan have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.2 goals, while Bologna have won 1 and scored an average of 1.2 goals. Milan’s failure to win any of their 4 home matches so far calls for caution, but the combination of frequent half-time draws and the hosts’ stronger recent form points most strongly to a draw at half-time and a Milan win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AC Milan | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AC Milan is 57% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.4 pts / match - Bologna
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AC Milan is 100% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - AC Milan · 1 goals / match - Bologna
AC Milan is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.25 goals / match - Bologna
AC Milan scores in 100% of matches (8 of 8 matches), while Bologna keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
Bologna scores in 63% of matches (5 of 8 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 38% (3 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AC Milan
Over / Under - Bologna
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AC Milan is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.38 pts / match - Bologna
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bologna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AC Milan
Bologna
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| AC Milan | Liga | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.88 | 3.12 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 22% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 69% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AC Milan 2 - 0 - 0 Bologna. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AC Milan vs Bologna?
The Serie A match finished AC Milan 2:4 Bologna. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AC Milan won 2, Bologna won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan score 2.00 goals per game on average and Bologna 1.00. The Serie A average is 3.12 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 63% of AC Milan's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in?
Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Bologna 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Bologna?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.