Italy - Serie AData current as of 06 September 2026

AC Milan vs Genoa: match statistics

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
1 : 1half-time 0:1
Genoa crest
Genoa
165%(1.41)
X22%(4.33)
213%(7.60)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.67.83
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favourable long term.-8.35%

AC Milan significantly outperforms Genoa in terms of form and quality. The hosts sit 2nd in the table with an impressive record of 11 wins and just 1 loss, while Genoa languishes in 17th place with only 3 wins this season. Milan demonstrates excellent home efficiency – 67% wins, 44% clean sheets, and a mere 11% loss rate, whereas Genoa has failed to keep a single clean sheet away and loses half of their fixtures. The form disparity is evident: Milan has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches while conceding 6, compared to Genoa's 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Furthermore, Milan holds the edge in average shots (15 vs 10.88), possession (51% vs 41%), and xG (1.63 vs 1.22), confirming their offensive dominance. Given these factors, a home victory is the most probable outcome.

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AC Milan vs Genoa: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

AC Milan played Genoa in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 8 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Current form

AC Milan: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Genoa: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.

Goal statistics

AC Milan scores 1.65 and concedes 0.76 goals per match. Genoa scores 1.00 and concedes 1.56. League average: 2.35 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: AC Milan 47%, Genoa 67%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 53%, Genoa 61%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 44%.

xG, shots and style

AC Milan has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.26. AC Milan: 13.2 shots per match, Genoa: 11.4.

Match halves

AC Milan: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.94. Genoa: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.50.

Goals by minute

AC Milan: 46-60 (8 goals). Genoa: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Serie A: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 44%.

Head-to-head

No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

AC Milan significantly outperforms Genoa in terms of form and quality. The hosts sit 2nd in the table with an impressive record of 11 wins and just 1 loss, while Genoa languishes in 17th place with only 3 wins this season. Milan demonstrates excellent home efficiency – 67% wins, 44% clean sheets, and a mere 11% loss rate, whereas Genoa has failed to keep a single clean sheet away and loses half of their fixtures. The form disparity is evident: Milan has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches while conceding 6, compared to Genoa's 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Furthermore, Milan holds the edge in average shots (15 vs 10.88), possession (51% vs 41%), and xG (1.63 vs 1.22), confirming their offensive dominance. Given these factors, a home victory is the most probable outcome.

View the statistical overview

Half-by-half

0 : 1
1st half
1 : 0
2nd half

Match statistics

61Possession (%)39
AC MilanGenoa
32Shots7
AC MilanGenoa
8Shots on target2
AC MilanGenoa
3.36xG0.7
AC MilanGenoa
12Corners1
AC MilanGenoa
110Dangerous attacks15
AC MilanGenoa
12Fouls8
AC MilanGenoa
4Cards1
AC MilanGenoa

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

2.24Points per matchPPG - points per game.0.83
AC MilanGenoa
1.65Goals scored / match1
AC MilanGenoa
0.76Goals conceded / match1.56
AC MilanGenoa
1.49xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.26
AC MilanGenoa
52%Average possession47%
AC MilanGenoa
4.71Shots on target / match3.94
AC MilanGenoa
53%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.11%
AC MilanGenoa
47%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.67%
AC MilanGenoa

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.24Shots per match11.44
AC MilanGenoa
4.71Shots on target3.94
AC MilanGenoa
12.4%Shot conversion8.7%
AC MilanGenoa
52%Possession47%
AC MilanGenoa
1.49xG for1.26
AC MilanGenoa
1.22xG against1.41
AC MilanGenoa

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedGenoa: Balanced
AC MilanGenoa
Accuracy (shots on target)36%34%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.350.25

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

AC Milan is 225% better for: last-5 form.

2.6 pts / match - AC Milan · 0.8 pts / match - Genoa

AC Milan
WWDWW
Unbeaten in the last 5 matches
Season result split
65% W29% R6% P
Season (W-D-L)
11-5-1
2.24 pts / match · goal difference +15
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-1-0
2.60 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
6-2-1
Last 5 at home
3-2-0
DWWDW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.54Opponent xG: 0.95BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Genoa
WLLLD
Season result split
17% W33% R50% P
Season (W-D-L)
3-6-9
0.83 pts / match · goal difference -10
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-1-3
0.80 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
2-2-4
Last 5 away
2-1-2
LWDWL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.07Opponent xG: 1.89BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 65% better for: goals scored per match.

1.65 goals / match - AC Milan · 1 goals / match - Genoa

AC Milan is 105% better for: goals conceded per match.

0.76 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.56 goals / match - Genoa

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 94% of matches (16 of 17 matches), while Genoa keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).

Genoa scoring profile: mixed

Genoa scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 53% (9 of 17 matches).

28Goals scored (season)18
AC MilanGenoa
13Goals conceded (season)28
AC MilanGenoa
2.41Average goals in match2.56
AC MilanGenoa
10Goals scored (last 5)5
AC MilanGenoa
4Goals conceded (last 5)8
AC MilanGenoa
AC Milan
53%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.9 of 17 matches
6%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.1 of 17 matches
Genoa
11%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.2 of 18 matches
33%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.6 of 18 matches

How often they score at least...

94%1 goal67%
AC MilanGenoa
53%2 goals28%
AC MilanGenoa
18%3 goals6%
AC MilanGenoa
0%4 goals0%
AC MilanGenoa

How often they concede at least...

47%1 goal89%
AC MilanGenoa
29%2 goals50%
AC MilanGenoa
0%3 goals17%
AC MilanGenoa
0%4 goals0%
AC MilanGenoa

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

47%
AC Milan - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.8 of 17 matches
67%
Genoa - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.12 of 18 matches
46%
League average

Goal patterns

29%BTTS at half-time22%
AC MilanGenoa
6%BTTS in both halves11%
AC MilanGenoa
29%Scored in both halves28%
AC MilanGenoa

BTTS and goal count

41%Min. 3 goals and BTTS56%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals without BTTS6%
AC MilanGenoa
40%BTTS - last 580%
AC MilanGenoa

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

94%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.89%
AC MilanGenoa
65%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.78%
AC MilanGenoa
53%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.61%
AC MilanGenoa
24%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.17%
AC MilanGenoa
6%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.6%
AC MilanGenoa

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 94%Under 6%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 65%Under 35%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 53%Under 47%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 24%Under 76%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 6%Under 94%

Over / Under - Genoa

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 89%Under 11%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 78%Under 22%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 61%Under 39%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 17%Under 83%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 6%Under 94%

1st half

59%Min. 1 goal before half-time72%
AC MilanGenoa
35%Min. 2 goals before half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals before half-time11%
AC MilanGenoa

2nd half

82%Min. 1 goal after half-time83%
AC MilanGenoa
41%Min. 2 goals after half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals after half-time6%
AC MilanGenoa

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.65 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.17 pts / match - Genoa

AC Milan - half-time state
35% leading59% draw6% trailing
Genoa - half-time state
22% leading50% draw28% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.65Points per match (1st half)1.17
AC MilanGenoa
0.71Goals scored (1st half)0.5
AC MilanGenoa
0.35Goals conceded (1st half)0.78
AC MilanGenoa
1.06Average goals (1st half)1.28
AC MilanGenoa
71%Clean sheet before half-time50%
AC MilanGenoa
41%No goal before half-time56%
AC MilanGenoa

After half-time (2nd half)

1.82Points per match (2nd half)1.06
AC MilanGenoa
0.94Goals scored (2nd half)0.5
AC MilanGenoa
0.41Goals conceded (2nd half)0.78
AC MilanGenoa
1.35Average goals (2nd half)1.28
AC MilanGenoa
65%Clean sheet after half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
35%No goal after half-time50%
AC MilanGenoa

AC Milan - second-half results

53% W24% R24% P
28
Half-time points
12
Half-time goals
+6
Goal difference (1st half)
31
Second-half points
+9
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.65
PPG before half-time
Lead holding186%

Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 65%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Genoa - second-half results

22% W39% R39% P
21
Half-time points
9
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
19
Second-half points
-5
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.17
PPG before half-time
Lead holding77%

Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

AC Milan - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.202.60
Goals scored / match0.61.4
Goals conceded / match0.60.2
Average goals in match1.21.6
1 goal60%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal40%0%
Goal difference0+6
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 80% won - 20% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 3
Genoa - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.60
Goals scored / match0.40.6
Goals conceded / match1.20.4
Average goals in match1.61.0
1 goal80%80%
2 goals60%20%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet40%60%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference-4+1
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

AC Milan
ScoredConceded
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.

Genoa
ScoredConceded
3
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.48
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.6 : 0.9
Estimated goal split
home : away
106%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
57%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
63%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
2%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 50 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

AC Milan

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.27
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.62
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-4.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.16
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.46
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
136%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
67%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.36
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
14% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 14% come in the first quarter-hour.
14%

Genoa

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.15
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.41
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-0.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.26
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.15
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
88%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
129%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.03
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
28% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 17% come in the first quarter-hour.
28%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

AC MilanLigaGenoa
Average goals in match• 2.412.35▲ 2.56
Both teams scored• 47%46%▲ 67%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 53%44%▲ 61%
Clean sheets▲ 53%32%▼ 11%
Goal before half-time▼ 59%64%▲ 72%
Goal after half-time▲ 82%75%▲ 83%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.35
Average goals per match
46%
Both teams scored
44%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
32%
Clean sheets
1.21
Home goals / match
1.14
Away goals / match
+6%
Home attack advantage
+6%
Home defence advantage
+3%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
64%
1 goal
28%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
1%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
75%
1 goal
40%
2 goals
15%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. GenoaGoalLorenzo ColomboAssist: Ruslan Malinovskiy
  2. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Ruben Ira Loftus-CheekOff: Youssouf Fofana
  3. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Patrizio MasiniOff: Morten Thorsby
  4. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Mikael Egill EllertssonOff: Ruslan Malinovskiy
  5. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Niclas FüllkrugOff: Alexis Saelemaekers
  6. AC MilanYellow cardMatteo Gabbia
  7. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Jeff EkhatorOff: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
  8. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Zachary AthekameOff: Matteo Gabbia
  9. GenoaYellow cardNicola Leali
  10. AC MilanGoalRafael Alexandre Conceição Leão
  11. AC MilanYellow cardMike Maignan
  12. AC MilanYellow cardStrahinja Pavlović
  13. AC MilanYellow cardFikayo Tomori

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeMaurizio Mariani

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Maurizio MarianiMatches officiated: 14
4Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 250%Home wins28%Draws21%Away wins

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Genoa?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:1 Genoa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Genoa?

AC Milan score 1.65 goals per game on average and Genoa 1.00. The Serie A average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 47% of AC Milan's matches and 67% of Genoa's.

What form are AC Milan and Genoa in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Genoa 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Genoa?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.