AC Milan vs Inter Milan: match statistics
Inter Milan, as the league leaders, demonstrate a clear statistical advantage over AC Milan, especially in away matches, where they achieve an impressive 85% win rate and 69% clean sheets. The visitors have a better goal difference this season (64:21 vs 43:20), a higher average of goals scored away (2.0), and a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 8%). AC Milan wins only 54% of their home games and has weaker form in the last five matches (2.0 PPG vs 1.4 PPG for Inter, although Inter has had a worse recent period). A key factor is Inter's dominance away from home with an unbeaten run of 13 matches and a higher average possession (61% vs 55%), which could prove decisive in the Milan derby. Despite the home advantage for the hosts, the statistics clearly favor Inter Milan to secure all three points.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AC Milan played Inter Milan in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 8 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
AC Milan: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Inter Milan: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
AC Milan scores 1.59 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. Inter Milan scores 2.37 and concedes 0.78. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AC Milan 52%, Inter Milan 41%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 44%, Inter Milan 56%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Inter Milan has higher xG: 2.07 vs 1.55. AC Milan: 13.7 shots per match, Inter Milan: 18.6.
Match halves
AC Milan: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.00. Inter Milan: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 1.37.
Goals by minute
AC Milan: 76-90+ (11 goals). Inter Milan: 76-90+ (17 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Inter Milan, as the league leaders, demonstrate a clear statistical advantage over AC Milan, especially in away matches, where they achieve an impressive 85% win rate and 69% clean sheets. The visitors have a better goal difference this season (64:21 vs 43:20), a higher average of goals scored away (2.0), and a better shot conversion rate (11% vs 8%). AC Milan wins only 54% of their home games and has weaker form in the last five matches (2.0 PPG vs 1.4 PPG for Inter, although Inter has had a worse recent period). A key factor is Inter's dominance away from home with an unbeaten run of 13 matches and a higher average possession (61% vs 55%), which could prove decisive in the Milan derby. Despite the home advantage for the hosts, the statistics clearly favor Inter Milan to secure all three points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AC Milan | Inter Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Inter Milan is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - AC Milan · 3 pts / match - Inter Milan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Milan is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
1.59 goals / match - AC Milan · 2.37 goals / match - Inter Milan
AC Milan is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.74 goals / match - AC Milan · 0.78 goals / match - Inter Milan
AC Milan scores in 93% of matches (25 of 27 matches), while Inter Milan keeps a clean sheet in 56% (15 of 27 matches).
Inter Milan scores in 96% of matches (26 of 27 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 44% (12 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AC Milan
Over / Under - Inter Milan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inter Milan is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - AC Milan · 2 pts / match - Inter Milan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Inter Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 81%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AC Milan
Inter Milan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| AC Milan | Liga | Inter Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.33 | 2.44 | ▲ 3.15 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 31% | ▲ 56% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 64% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 78% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AC Milan 1 - 0 - 0 Inter Milan. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:0 Inter Milan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
AC Milan score 1.59 goals per game on average and Inter Milan 2.37. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 52% of AC Milan's matches and 41% of Inter Milan's.
What form are AC Milan and Inter Milan in?
Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Inter Milan 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AC Milan vs Inter Milan: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.