Italy - Serie A18/01/2026, 19:45Data current as of 11 September 2026

AC Milan vs Lecce: match statistics

AC Milan

1 : 0half-time 0:0

Lecce

170%(1.16)

X20%(5.30)

210%(11.00)

BTTS Over/Under HT/FT

Pick: 1Won

Pick score:81.54

Value:-18.80%

AC Milan are the clear favorite for this match, sitting in 2nd place in the table with an impressive record of 12 wins and only 1 defeat this season. The hosts boast excellent home form with a 60% win rate and just 0.9 goals conceded per match at home. Lecce are in the relegation zone in 17th position, with disastrous away form – a 56% loss rate, only 0.67 goals scored on average away from home, and as many as 44% of matches without a goal scored. The difference in offensive quality (xG 1.8 vs 0.98) and defensive quality (xGA 1.09 vs 1.7) clearly favors the hosts. The recent form of both teams (AC Milan: 2.2 pts/match vs Lecce: 0.2 pts/match in the last 5 matches) further confirms the superiority of the Rossoneri, who should secure a comfortable win in front of their home crowd.

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AC Milan vs Lecce: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

AC Milan played Lecce in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 18 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.

Current form

AC Milan: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Lecce: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.

Goal statistics

AC Milan scores 1.65 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. Lecce scores 0.65 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.34 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: AC Milan 55%, Lecce 35%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 50%, Lecce 35%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 43%.

xG, shots and style

AC Milan has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.09. AC Milan: 13.8 shots per match, Lecce: 9.8.

Match halves

AC Milan: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.00. Lecce: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25.

Goals by minute

AC Milan: 46-60 (9 goals). Lecce: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Serie A: 2.34 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 43%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

View the statistical overview

Half-by-half

0 : 0

1st half

1 : 0

2nd half

Match statistics

69Possession (%)31

AC MilanLecce

20Shots3

AC MilanLecce

6Shots on target0

AC MilanLecce

2.18xG0.38

AC MilanLecce

10Corners2

AC MilanLecce

68Dangerous attacks24

AC MilanLecce

9Fouls11

AC MilanLecce

1Cards1

AC MilanLecce

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

2.15Points per match0.85

AC MilanLecce

1.65Goals scored / match0.65

AC MilanLecce

0.8Goals conceded / match1.4

AC MilanLecce

1.54xG for1.09

AC MilanLecce

51%Average possession43%

AC MilanLecce

4.75Shots on target / match2.5

AC MilanLecce

45%Clean sheets30%

AC MilanLecce

55%Both teams scored35%

AC MilanLecce

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.85Shots per match9.85

AC MilanLecce

4.75Shots on target2.5

AC MilanLecce

11.9%Shot conversion6.6%

AC MilanLecce

51%Possession43%

AC MilanLecce

1.54xG for1.09

AC MilanLecce

1.29xG against1.47

AC MilanLecce

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedLecce: Balanced

	AC Milan	Lecce
Accuracy (shots on target)	34%	25%
Chance quality (xG per shot)	0.11	0.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)	0.35	0.26

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

AC Milan is 1000% better for: last-5 form.

2.2 pts / match - AC Milan · 0.2 pts / match - Lecce

AC Milan

WWDDW

Unbeaten in the last 5 matches

Season result split

60% W35% D5% L

Season (W-D-L)

12-7-1

2.15 pts / match · goal difference +17

Last 5 (W-D-L)

3-2-0

2.20 pts / match

Record at home (W-D-L)

6-3-1

Last 5 at home

3-2-0

WWDWD

Last 5 matches - averages

Goals scored: 1.8Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 1.64Opponent xG: 1.33BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%

Lecce

LDLLL

No win in the last 5 matches

Season result split

20% W25% D55% L

Season (W-D-L)

4-5-11

0.85 pts / match · goal difference -15

Last 5 (W-D-L)

0-1-4

0.20 pts / match

Record away (W-D-L)

2-2-5

Last 5 away

1-1-3

WLLDL

Last 5 matches - averages

Goals scored: 0.4Goals conceded: 1.8xG: 0.92Opponent xG: 1.80BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 154% better for: goals scored per match.

1.65 goals / match - AC Milan · 0.65 goals / match - Lecce

AC Milan is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.

0.8 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.4 goals / match - Lecce

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 95% of matches (19 of 20 matches), while Lecce keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).

Lecce scoring profile: mixed

Lecce scores in 50% of matches (10 of 20 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 45% (9 of 20 matches).

33Goals scored (season)13

AC MilanLecce

16Goals conceded (season)28

AC MilanLecce

2.45Average goals in match2.05

AC MilanLecce

9Goals scored (last 5)2

AC MilanLecce

3Goals conceded (last 5)9

AC MilanLecce

AC Milan

45%

Clean sheets9 of 20 matches

No goal1 of 20 matches

Lecce

30%

Clean sheets6 of 20 matches

50%

No goal10 of 20 matches

How often they score at least...

95%1 goal50%

AC MilanLecce

50%2 goals15%

AC MilanLecce

20%3 goals0%

AC MilanLecce

0%4 goals0%

AC MilanLecce

How often they concede at least...

55%1 goal70%

AC MilanLecce

25%2 goals50%

AC MilanLecce

0%3 goals15%

AC MilanLecce

0%4 goals5%

AC MilanLecce

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

55%

AC Milan - BTTS11 of 20 matches

35%

Lecce - BTTS7 of 20 matches

46%

League average

Goal patterns

30%BTTS at half-time10%

AC MilanLecce

5%BTTS in both halves5%

AC MilanLecce

30%Scored in both halves5%

AC MilanLecce

BTTS and goal count

40%Min. 3 goals and BTTS30%

AC MilanLecce

10%Min. 3 goals without BTTS5%

AC MilanLecce

60%BTTS - last 540%

AC MilanLecce

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

95%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)85%

AC MilanLecce

70%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)60%

AC MilanLecce

50%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)35%

AC MilanLecce

25%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)15%

AC MilanLecce

5%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)10%

AC MilanLecce

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 95%Under 5%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 70%Under 30%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 50%Under 50%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 25%Under 75%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 5%Under 95%

Over / Under - Lecce

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)

Over 85%Under 15%

Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)

Over 60%Under 40%

Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)

Over 35%Under 65%

Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)

Over 15%Under 85%

Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)

Over 10%Under 90%

1st half

60%Min. 1 goal before half-time60%

AC MilanLecce

35%Min. 2 goals before half-time20%

AC MilanLecce

10%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%

AC MilanLecce

2nd half

85%Min. 1 goal after half-time75%

AC MilanLecce

45%Min. 2 goals after half-time35%

AC MilanLecce

10%Min. 3 goals after half-time10%

AC MilanLecce

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.5 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.25 pts / match - Lecce

AC Milan - half-time state

30% leading60% draw10% trailing

Lecce - half-time state

25% leading50% draw25% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.5Points per match (1st half)1.25

AC MilanLecce

0.65Goals scored (1st half)0.4

AC MilanLecce

0.4Goals conceded (1st half)0.4

AC MilanLecce

1.05Average goals (1st half)0.8

AC MilanLecce

65%Clean sheet before half-time65%

AC MilanLecce

45%No goal before half-time65%

AC MilanLecce

After half-time (2nd half)

1.9Points per match (2nd half)0.6

AC MilanLecce

1Goals scored (2nd half)0.25

AC MilanLecce

0.4Goals conceded (2nd half)1

AC MilanLecce

1.4Average goals (2nd half)1.25

AC MilanLecce

65%Clean sheet after half-time30%

AC MilanLecce

30%No goal after half-time80%

AC MilanLecce

AC Milan - second-half results

55% W25% D20% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

+12

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.50

PPG before half-time

Lead holding200%

Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Lecce - second-half results

10% W30% D60% L

Half-time points

Half-time goals

Goal difference (1st half)

Second-half points

-15

Goal difference (2nd half)

1.25

PPG before half-time

Lead holding80%

Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 20%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.

Defence after half-time+0.6

Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.

AC Milan - last 5 matches by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per match	1.20	2.60
Goals scored / match	0.4	1.4
Goals conceded / match	0.4	0.2
Average goals in match	0.8	1.6
1 goal	60%	100%
2 goals	20%	60%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	60%	80%
No goal	60%	0%
Goal difference	0	+6

Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing

2nd half: 80% won - 20% draw - 0% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

Lecce - last 5 matches by half
	1st half	2nd half
Points per match	1.40	0.00
Goals scored / match	0.4	0.0
Goals conceded / match	0.4	1.4
Average goals in match	0.8	1.4
1 goal	80%	100%
2 goals	0%	40%
3 goals	0%	0%
Clean sheet	60%	0%
No goal	60%	100%
Goal difference	0	-7

Half-time: 40% leading - 20% draw - 40% trailing

2nd half: 0% won - 0% draw - 100% lost

BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

AC Milan

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.

Lecce

ScoredConceded

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.25

Estimated goals

attack vs opponent defence

1.5 : 0.7

Estimated goal split

home : away

96%

Pace vs league

100% = league average

45%

Both teams scored (BTTS)

average from both teams' seasons

-11%

Derby effect

H2H goals vs typical matches

48%

BTTS estimate

from both teams' scoring frequency

0:0 risk

about 1 in 33 matches

0-1

Most common goal range

attack vs defence on both sides

AC Milan

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

+0.25

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

+0.60

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

-5.6 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

+0.11

Defensive efficiency

Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.

+0.49

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

135%

Defence vs league

How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.

71%

Form trend

Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.

+0.05

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

+0.3

Late goals

21% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 12% come in the first quarter-hour.

21%

Lecce

Net xG balance

Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.

-0.38

Results compared with xG

Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.

-0.37

Points compared with goal balance

Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.

+6.4 pts

Finishing efficiency

Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.

-0.44

Defensive efficiency

Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.

+0.07

Attack vs league

How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.

58%

Defence vs league

How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.

115%

Form trend

Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.

-0.65

Stronger second half?

How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.

-0.2

Late goals

23% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 23% come in the first quarter-hour.

23%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

	AC Milan	Liga	Lecce
Average goals in match	▲ 2.45	2.34	▼ 2.05
Both teams scored	▲ 55%	46%	▼ 35%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)	▲ 50%	43%	▼ 35%
Clean sheets	▲ 45%	32%	▼ 30%
Goal before half-time	▼ 60%	64%	▼ 60%
Goal after half-time	▲ 85%	76%	• 75%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.34

Average goals per match

46%

Both teams scored

43%

Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)

32%

Clean sheets

1.22

Home goals / match

1.12

Away goals / match

+9%

Home attack advantage

+8%

Home defence advantage

+3%

Total home advantage

Goals in 1st half (whole league)

64%

1 goal

28%

2 goals

10%

3 goals

4 goals

Goals in 2nd half (whole league)

76%

1 goal

40%

2 goals

13%

3 goals

4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Starting lineup

2Pervis Josué Estupiñán Tenorio 4Samuele Riccioff 73'5Koni De Winter🟨 1 10Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leãooff 87'11Christian Mate Pulisicoff 73'12Adrien Rabiot 16Mike Maignan 23Fikayo Tomori 30Ardon Jasarioff 87'46Matteo Gabbia 56Alexis SaelemaekersA 1 · off 80'

Substitutes

1Pietro Terraccianoon 1'

8Ruben Ira Loftus-Cheekon 73'9Niclas Füllkrug⚽ 1 · on 73'14Luka Modrićon 87'18Christopher Nkunkuon 87'19Youssouf Fofanaon 1'24Zachary Athekameon 80'

27David Uyoyo Odoguon 1'

31Strahinja Pavlovićon 1'33Davide Bartesaghion 1'

96Lorenzo Torrianion 1'

Away team

Starting lineup

3Corrie Ndaba 5Jamil Siebert 9Nikola Štulićoff 69'16Omri Gandelman 20Ylber Ramadani🟨 1 · off 85'23Riccardo Sottiloff 54'25Antonino Gallooff 84'29Lassana Coulibaly 30Wladimiro Falcone 44Tiago Gabriel Coelho Oliveira 50Santiago Pierotti

Substitutes

1Christian Früchtlon 1'

6Álex Sala Herreroon 1'7José Antonio Morente Olivaon 69'8Sadik Fofanaon 1'11Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’drion 84'

13Matías Rodrigo Pérez Sepúlvedaon 1'

14Þórir Jóhann Helgasonon 1'18Gaby Jeanon 1'19Lameck Bandaon 54'21Christ-Owen Kouassi Batheleon 1'

32Jasper Samoojaon 1'

36Filip Marchwińskion 1'

77Mohamed Kabaon 1'79Oumar Ngomon 1'93Youssef Malehon 85'

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

21'
AC MilanYellow cardKoni De Winter
54'
LecceSubstitutionOn: Lameck BandaOff: Riccardo Sottil
69'
LecceSubstitutionOn: José Antonio Morente OlivaOff: Nikola Štulić
76'
AC MilanGoalNiclas FüllkrugAssist: Alexis Saelemaekers
80'
AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Zachary AthekameOff: Alexis Saelemaekers
84'
LecceYellow cardYlber Ramadani
84'
LecceSubstitutionOn: Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’driOff: Antonino Gallo
85'
LecceSubstitutionOn: Youssef MalehOff: Ylber Ramadani

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeLuca Zufferli

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Luca ZufferliMatches officiated: 17

3.18Cards per match

0Penalties per match

1 / X / 235%Home wins35%Draws28%Away wins

Head-to-head

Previous meeting: AC Milan 1 - 0 - 0 Lecce. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.

US Lecce

0 : 229/08/2025

AC Milan

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Lecce?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:0 Lecce. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Lecce?

AC Milan score 1.65 goals per game on average and Lecce 0.65. The Serie A average is 2.34 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 55% of AC Milan's matches and 35% of Lecce's.

What form are AC Milan and Lecce in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Lecce 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Lecce?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AC Milan vs Lecce: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.