Italy - Serie AData current as of 12 September 2026

AC Milan vs Torino: match statistics

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
3 : 2half-time 1:1
Torino crest
Torino
165%(1.26)
X22%(4.55)
213%(8.25)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Won
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.76.17
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favourable long term.-18.10%

AC Milan demonstrates significantly higher form and potential than Torino. The hosts are in 2nd place in the table with 17 wins, while Torino sits in 14th position with just 9 wins this season. In home matches, Milan shows impressive efficiency - a 57% win rate, averaging 1.36 goals per game and failing to score in only 7% of their matches. Torino performs poorly away from home - only a 21% win rate, a 50% loss rate, and a negative goal difference of -14. They concede an average of 1.93 goals on the road, and in 43% of matches they fail to score. Furthermore, Milan's advantage in xG (1.77 vs 1.21) and possession (53% vs 42%) confirms their dominance. Considering all statistics, a home victory is the most likely scenario.

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AC Milan vs Torino: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

AC Milan played Torino in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 21 March 2026. Final score: 3:2.

Current form

AC Milan: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Torino: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.

Goal statistics

AC Milan scores 1.52 and concedes 0.72 goals per match. Torino scores 1.10 and concedes 1.72. League average: 2.44 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: AC Milan 48%, Torino 45%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 41%, Torino 62%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.

xG, shots and style

AC Milan has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.30. AC Milan: 13.7 shots per match, Torino: 11.7.

Match halves

AC Milan: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.93. Torino: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.62.

Goals by minute

AC Milan: 76-90+ (11 goals). Torino: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Serie A: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 47%.

Head-to-head

Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

AC Milan demonstrates significantly higher form and potential than Torino. The hosts are in 2nd place in the table with 17 wins, while Torino sits in 14th position with just 9 wins this season. In home matches, Milan shows impressive efficiency - a 57% win rate, averaging 1.36 goals per game and failing to score in only 7% of their matches. Torino performs poorly away from home - only a 21% win rate, a 50% loss rate, and a negative goal difference of -14. They concede an average of 1.93 goals on the road, and in 43% of matches they fail to score. Furthermore, Milan's advantage in xG (1.77 vs 1.21) and possession (53% vs 42%) confirms their dominance. Considering all statistics, a home victory is the most likely scenario.

View the statistical overview

Half-by-half

1 : 1
1st half
2 : 1
2nd half

Match statistics

63Possession (%)37
AC MilanTorino
15Shots19
AC MilanTorino
6Shots on target7
AC MilanTorino
1.68xG1.97
AC MilanTorino
4Corners6
AC MilanTorino
43Dangerous attacks40
AC MilanTorino
9Fouls10
AC MilanTorino
3Cards2
AC MilanTorino

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

2.07Points per matchPPG - points per game.1.14
AC MilanTorino
1.52Goals scored / match1.1
AC MilanTorino
0.72Goals conceded / match1.72
AC MilanTorino
1.53xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.3
AC MilanTorino
52%Average possession44%
AC MilanTorino
4.59Shots on target / match4.28
AC MilanTorino
45%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.34%
AC MilanTorino
48%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.45%
AC MilanTorino

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

13.66Shots per match11.69
AC MilanTorino
4.59Shots on target4.28
AC MilanTorino
11.1%Shot conversion9.4%
AC MilanTorino
52%Possession44%
AC MilanTorino
1.53xG for1.3
AC MilanTorino
1.25xG against1.51
AC MilanTorino

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedTorino: Balanced
AC MilanTorino
Accuracy (shots on target)34%37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.330.26

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

AC Milan is 17% better for: last-5 form.

1.4 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.2 pts / match - Torino

AC Milan
DLWWL
Season result split
59% W31% D10% L
Season (W-D-L)
17-9-3
2.07 pts / match · goal difference +23
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
8-4-2
Last 5 at home
2-2-1
DWDLW
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 0.8Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 1.71Opponent xG: 1.16BTTS: 20%Over 2.5: 0%
Torino
LLWLW
Season result split
31% W21% D48% L
Season (W-D-L)
9-6-14
1.14 pts / match · goal difference -18
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-0-3
1.20 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
3-4-7
Last 5 away
0-1-4
LLDLL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.11Opponent xG: 1.49BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 38% better for: goals scored per match.

1.52 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.1 goals / match - Torino

AC Milan is 139% better for: goals conceded per match.

0.72 goals / match - AC Milan · 1.72 goals / match - Torino

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 90% of matches (26 of 29 matches), while Torino keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 matches).

Torino scoring profile: mixed

Torino scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 45% (13 of 29 matches).

44Goals scored (season)32
AC MilanTorino
21Goals conceded (season)50
AC MilanTorino
2.24Average goals in match2.83
AC MilanTorino
4Goals scored (last 5)8
AC MilanTorino
3Goals conceded (last 5)8
AC MilanTorino
AC Milan
45%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.13 of 29 matches
10%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.3 of 29 matches
Torino
34%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.10 of 29 matches
31%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.9 of 29 matches

How often they score at least...

90%1 goal69%
AC MilanTorino
45%2 goals28%
AC MilanTorino
17%3 goals10%
AC MilanTorino
0%4 goals3%
AC MilanTorino

How often they concede at least...

55%1 goal66%
AC MilanTorino
17%2 goals59%
AC MilanTorino
0%3 goals24%
AC MilanTorino
0%4 goals10%
AC MilanTorino

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

48%
AC Milan - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.14 of 29 matches
45%
Torino - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.13 of 29 matches
47%
League average

Goal patterns

21%BTTS at half-time21%
AC MilanTorino
3%BTTS in both halves3%
AC MilanTorino
28%Scored in both halves17%
AC MilanTorino

BTTS and goal count

31%Min. 3 goals and BTTS45%
AC MilanTorino
10%Min. 3 goals without BTTS17%
AC MilanTorino
20%BTTS - last 560%
AC MilanTorino

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

Full match - team comparison (Over)

97%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.90%
AC MilanTorino
66%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.72%
AC MilanTorino
41%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.62%
AC MilanTorino
17%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.28%
AC MilanTorino
3%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.21%
AC MilanTorino

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 97%Under 3%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 66%Under 34%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 41%Under 59%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 17%Under 83%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 3%Under 97%

Over / Under - Torino

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 90%Under 10%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 72%Under 28%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 62%Under 38%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 28%Under 72%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 21%Under 79%

1st half

59%Min. 1 goal before half-time76%
AC MilanTorino
28%Min. 2 goals before half-time38%
AC MilanTorino
7%Min. 3 goals before half-time14%
AC MilanTorino

2nd half

83%Min. 1 goal after half-time72%
AC MilanTorino
41%Min. 2 goals after half-time45%
AC MilanTorino
7%Min. 3 goals after half-time28%
AC MilanTorino

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.48 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.1 pts / match - Torino

AC Milan - half-time state
31% leading55% draw14% trailing
Torino - half-time state
24% leading38% draw38% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.48Points per match (1st half)1.1
AC MilanTorino
0.59Goals scored (1st half)0.48
AC MilanTorino
0.34Goals conceded (1st half)0.83
AC MilanTorino
0.93Average goals (1st half)1.31
AC MilanTorino
69%Clean sheet before half-time45%
AC MilanTorino
52%No goal before half-time59%
AC MilanTorino

After half-time (2nd half)

1.86Points per match (2nd half)1.17
AC MilanTorino
0.93Goals scored (2nd half)0.62
AC MilanTorino
0.38Goals conceded (2nd half)0.9
AC MilanTorino
1.31Average goals (2nd half)1.52
AC MilanTorino
66%Clean sheet after half-time52%
AC MilanTorino
31%No goal after half-time55%
AC MilanTorino

AC Milan - second-half results

52% W31% D17% L
43
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
+7
Goal difference (1st half)
54
Second-half points
+16
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.48
PPG before half-time
Lead holding190%

Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.0

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Torino - second-half results

28% W34% D38% L
32
Half-time points
14
Half-time goals
-10
Goal difference (1st half)
34
Second-half points
-8
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.10
PPG before half-time
Lead holding129%

Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

AC Milan - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.60
Goals scored / match0.20.6
Goals conceded / match0.40.2
Average goals in match0.60.8
1 goal60%60%
2 goals0%20%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal80%60%
Goal difference-1+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 0% - Half-time goals total: 1
Torino - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.001.40
Goals scored / match0.41.2
Goals conceded / match0.80.8
Average goals in match1.22.0
1 goal80%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals0%40%
Clean sheet40%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference-2+2
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

AC Milan
ScoredConceded
4
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
10
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
11
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.

Torino
ScoredConceded
3
5
0-15
7
11
16-30
4
8
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
11
61-75
8
8
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

2.53
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.6 : 0.9
Estimated goal split
home : away
104%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
47%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+97%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
62%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
3%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 33 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

AC Milan

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.28
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.52
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-10.9 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.01
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.53
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
118%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
63%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
-0.67
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 9% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

Torino

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.21
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.41
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+7.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.20
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-0.21
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
96%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
133%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.06
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.1
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 9% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

AC MilanLigaTorino
Average goals in match▼ 2.242.44▲ 2.83
Both teams scored• 48%47%▼ 45%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 41%47%▲ 62%
Clean sheets▲ 45%31%▲ 34%
Goal before half-time▼ 59%65%▲ 76%
Goal after half-time▲ 83%77%▼ 72%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.44
Average goals per match
47%
Both teams scored
47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
31%
Clean sheets
1.29
Home goals / match
1.15
Away goals / match
+12%
Home attack advantage
+11%
Home defence advantage
+5%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
65%
1 goal
28%
2 goals
8%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
44%
2 goals
16%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. TorinoYellow cardGuillermo Alfonso Maripán Loaysa
  2. AC MilanYellow cardFikayo Tomori
  3. AC MilanGoalStrahinja Pavlović
  4. TorinoGoalGiovanni Pablo Simeone
  5. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Zachary AthekameOff: Fikayo Tomori
  6. AC MilanGoalAdrien RabiotAssist: Christian Mate Pulisic
  7. AC MilanGoalYoussouf FofanaAssist: Zachary Athekame
  8. TorinoSubstitutionOn: Cesare CasadeiOff: Gvidas Gineitis
  9. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Santiago Tomás GiménezOff: Christian Mate Pulisic
  10. AC MilanYellow cardStrahinja Pavlović
  11. TorinoGoalNikola Vlašić
  12. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: David Uyoyo OdoguOff: Alexis Saelemaekers
  13. TorinoYellow cardEmirhan İlkhan
  14. AC MilanYellow cardSantiago Tomás Giménez

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeFrancesco Fourneau

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Francesco FourneauMatches officiated: 11
4.09Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 255%Home wins18%Draws27%Away wins

Head-to-head

Previous meeting: AC Milan 1 - 0 - 0 Torino. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.

Torino FC
2 : 3
AC Milan

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Torino?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 3:2 Torino. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Torino?

AC Milan score 1.52 goals per game on average and Torino 1.10. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 48% of AC Milan's matches and 45% of Torino's.

What form are AC Milan and Torino in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Torino 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Torino?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.