Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar: match statistics

Both teams have earned 7 points from their last 5 matches, so current form offers no clear advantage. Acassuso have conceded just 2 goals over that period, compared with 5 for Ciudad de Bolívar, but score an average of only 0.87 goals per home game. The visitors defend well away from home, conceding an average of 0.80 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 53% of matches, although they score only 0.73 goals per game themselves. Acassuso create chances worth 1.19 xG at home, compared with 1.02 xG for Ciudad de Bolívar away, but their finishing has not turned that edge into many goals. With an average of 1.80 goals in Acassuso's home matches and 1.53 in Ciudad de Bolívar's away games, a low-scoring draw looks the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: both teams average fewer than one goal per match — Acassuso 0.94 and Ciudad de Bolívar 0.73. The visitors have failed to score in 40% of their matches, compared with 31% for the hosts, so there is a clear risk that at least one side will draw a blank. Both teams scored in only 27% of Ciudad de Bolívar’s matches, compared with 50% for Acassuso; the visitors have also kept a clean sheet in 53% of their matches. The hosts’ last five matches all ended without BTTS, and they averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Although the average xG figures are 1.21 for Acassuso and 1.02 for the visitors, their low scoring output and frequent matches in which one side fails to score support the BTTS - No pick.

Acassuso score an average of 0.94 goals per match, while Ciudad de Bolívar average 0.73; both teams also concede fewer than one goal per game. Their matches have produced no more than 3 goals in 87% of cases, the strongest indicator in favour of the Under 3.5 goals line. Acassuso’s last 5 matches produced just 5 goals in total, an average of 1.0 per match, although the figure was 1.8 for the visitors. In addition, the league average is 1.93 goals, while the projected total for this match is 1.82, so I’m backing Under 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is a strong indicator: Acassuso were level at the break in 12 of 16 matches, while Ciudad de Bolívar did so in 9 of 15. In their last five matches, the figures were 5 of 5 and 4 of 5 respectively, further pointing to a closely contested first half. After the break, the home side average 0.50 goals and the visitors 0.33, but they failed to score in this half in 56% and 67% of matches respectively. With season averages of 0.94 goals for Acassuso and 0.73 for Ciudad de Bolívar, there is little evidence of a strong likelihood of a turnaround. Therefore, a draw at half-time and full-time is the most likely individual scenario, although the home side’s better second-half scoring record makes a half-time draw followed by a home win a notable alternative.