Accrington Stanley vs Crawley Town: match statistics

Crawley Town are in better recent form, having picked up 6 points from their last 5 matches, while Accrington Stanley have managed just 1 point and suffered 4 defeats. The hosts conceded as many as 12 goals during this period, compared with only 5 for the visitors, which clearly strengthens the case for Crawley’s superior defensive organisation. Away from home, Crawley won their only match so far, scoring an average of 2 goals and limiting opponents to just 0,90 xG. Accrington also average 2 goals at home and generate a high 2,30 xG, but their defence concedes 2 goals per match and has yet to keep a clean sheet. The visitors’ advantage in recent results and defensive performance makes a Crawley win the most likely outcome, although the hosts’ attacking potential reduces confidence in this prediction.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is not Accrington’s poor finishing: the hosts have yet to score in the season data, and have averaged just 1.0 goal across their last 5 matches. Crawley have conceded an average of 1.0 goal in their last 5 games, despite an elevated average xG against of 2.06, so the hosts have a chance to break their duck, but it is far from certain. The visitors should find a way to score, however, as Accrington have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches — 2.4 per game — while Crawley have averaged 2.0 goals in their away matches. Crawley’s recent BTTS rate is just 20%, compared with the league figure of 50%, suggesting that their matches more often end with one side failing to score. The BTTS - No pick primarily covers a Crawley win to nil, which is more likely than both teams finding the net.

Crawley have a clear offensive advantage over the opponents’ defensive profile: they average 2.0 goals away from home, while Accrington concede 1.5 at home, with xG against the hosts as high as 2.33. However, the home side should be limited in attack, as their average home xG is only 1.04, while Crawley allow opponents just 0.90 xG. Accrington’s last five matches have been open, averaging 3.4 goals per game with at least three goals in 80% of them, but Crawley’s form is considerably more controlled: 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Both teams have so far recorded 100% of their matches under 3.5 goals, which, combined with a projected total of 2.40 goals, indicates that four goals would require a scenario above baseline expectations. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, although the visitors’ advantage should ensure at least a moderate probability of two or three goals.

Crawley have a clearly superior season record: they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, and have won 100% of their matches so far, while Accrington have not won any and average 0.0 goals scored. The visitors’ advantage is already evident before half-time, as they have been leading at the break in 100% of their matches and have not conceded a goal during that period, while the hosts have averaged 0.0 goals scored in the first half. The qualitative data also supports an away-side scenario: Accrington’s xG against is as high as 2.33, compared with Crawley conceding just 0.90 xG on average. In their last five matches, the hosts lost 80% of their games and conceded an average of 1.4 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors were either leading or level after 45 minutes in a total of 80% of their appearances. The most likely outcome is therefore Crawley taking the lead in the first half and maintaining it until the final whistle.