AD Marco 09 vs Paredes: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced contest with a slight inclination towards a draw. AD Marco 09 presents solid home form with a 43% win rate and 0% losses at home, giving them a psychological edge. However, Paredes shows better form in the last 5 matches (1.6 PPG vs 1.4 PPG) and a higher average xG (1.44 vs 1.25), suggesting greater offensive potential. The hosts have a tendency to draw (57% in home matches), and the visitors also frequently split points (43% draws away). Considering the hosts' solid defense (0.86 goals conceded at home) and Paredes' struggles scoring on the road (43% FTS%), the most likely scenario is a sharing of points.
AD Marco 09 vs Paredes: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AD Marco 09 played Paredes in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match was played on 11 January 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
AD Marco 09: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Paredes: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
AD Marco 09 scores 0.87 and concedes 1.07 goals per match. Paredes scores 1.13 and concedes 0.73. League average: 2.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AD Marco 09 53%, Paredes 40%. Over 2.5: AD Marco 09 40%, Paredes 33%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Paredes has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.33. AD Marco 09: 10.3 shots per match, Paredes: 10.7.
Match halves
AD Marco 09: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.33. Paredes: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
AD Marco 09: 31-45+ (4 goals). Paredes: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.18 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a balanced contest with a slight inclination towards a draw. AD Marco 09 presents solid home form with a 43% win rate and 0% losses at home, giving them a psychological edge. However, Paredes shows better form in the last 5 matches (1.6 PPG vs 1.4 PPG) and a higher average xG (1.44 vs 1.25), suggesting greater offensive potential. The hosts have a tendency to draw (57% in home matches), and the visitors also frequently split points (43% draws away). Considering the hosts' solid defense (0.86 goals conceded at home) and Paredes' struggles scoring on the road (43% FTS%), the most likely scenario is a sharing of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AD Marco 09 | Paredes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 49% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paredes is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - AD Marco 09 · 1.6 pts / match - Paredes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paredes is 30% better for: goals scored per match.
0.87 goals / match - AD Marco 09 · 1.13 goals / match - Paredes
Paredes is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.07 goals / match - AD Marco 09 · 0.73 goals / match - Paredes
AD Marco 09 scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while Paredes keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 matches).
Paredes scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while AD Marco 09 keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AD Marco 09
Over / Under - Paredes
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paredes is 34% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - AD Marco 09 · 1.87 pts / match - Paredes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AD Marco 09 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paredes - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AD Marco 09
Paredes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| AD Marco 09 | Liga | Paredes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.93 | 2.18 | ▼ 1.87 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 46% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 36% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | • 33% | 33% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 60% | 62% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 60% | 74% | ▼ 53% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AD Marco 09 0 - 0 - 1 Paredes. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AD Marco 09 vs Paredes?
The Liga 3 match finished AD Marco 09 0:3 Paredes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AD Marco 09 vs Paredes?
AD Marco 09 score 0.87 goals per game on average and Paredes 1.13. The Liga 3 average is 2.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 53% of AD Marco 09's matches and 40% of Paredes's.
What form are AD Marco 09 and Paredes in?
Over the last 5 games AD Marco 09 have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Paredes 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AD Marco 09 vs Paredes?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AD Marco 09 vs Paredes: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.