AD Marco 09 vs Varzim: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a close encounter favoring a draw scenario. AD Marco 09 presents solid home form with 50% of matches ending in a draw and a goal difference of 0 at their own stadium, which testifies to defensive stability. Varzim, despite a better overall record (6 victories versus 4 for AD Marco), struggles away – only 25% wins and a negative goal difference (-1). Both teams have identical indicators: an average of 1.13 goals conceded, shot conversion of 13%, and 48% possession, confirming their similar level. Recent form is also similar – AD Marco with 1.2 PPG, Varzim with 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches. Considering the high draw rates of both teams (50% for the hosts at home, 38% for the visitors away) and the balanced xG parameters, the most probable result is a sharing of points.
AD Marco 09 vs Varzim: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AD Marco 09 played Varzim in Liga 3 (Portugal). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
AD Marco 09: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Varzim: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
AD Marco 09 scores 0.82 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Varzim scores 1.35 and concedes 0.94. League average: 2.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AD Marco 09 47%, Varzim 53%. Over 2.5: AD Marco 09 41%, Varzim 41%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
AD Marco 09 has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.31. AD Marco 09: 10.8 shots per match, Varzim: 9.9.
Match halves
AD Marco 09: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.35. Varzim: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
AD Marco 09: 31-45+ (4 goals). Varzim: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga 3: 2.11 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a close encounter favoring a draw scenario. AD Marco 09 presents solid home form with 50% of matches ending in a draw and a goal difference of 0 at their own stadium, which testifies to defensive stability. Varzim, despite a better overall record (6 victories versus 4 for AD Marco), struggles away – only 25% wins and a negative goal difference (-1). Both teams have identical indicators: an average of 1.13 goals conceded, shot conversion of 13%, and 48% possession, confirming their similar level. Recent form is also similar – AD Marco with 1.2 PPG, Varzim with 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches. Considering the high draw rates of both teams (50% for the hosts at home, 38% for the visitors away) and the balanced xG parameters, the most probable result is a sharing of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AD Marco 09 | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varzim is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - AD Marco 09 · 1.4 pts / match - Varzim
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varzim is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
0.82 goals / match - AD Marco 09 · 1.35 goals / match - Varzim
Varzim is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - AD Marco 09 · 0.94 goals / match - Varzim
AD Marco 09 scores in 59% of matches (10 of 17 matches), while Varzim keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 matches).
Varzim scores in 71% of matches (12 of 17 matches), while AD Marco 09 keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AD Marco 09
Over / Under - Varzim
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AD Marco 09 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varzim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AD Marco 09
Varzim
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga 3).
Teams vs league
| AD Marco 09 | Liga | Varzim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.94 | 2.11 | ▲ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 45% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 41% | 34% | ▲ 41% |
| Clean sheets | • 35% | 34% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 62% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 65% | 73% | ▲ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AD Marco 09 0 - 0 - 1 Varzim. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
The Liga 3 match finished AD Marco 09 1:3 Varzim. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
AD Marco 09 score 0.82 goals per game on average and Varzim 1.35. The Liga 3 average is 2.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 47% of AD Marco 09's matches and 53% of Varzim's.
What form are AD Marco 09 and Varzim in?
Over the last 5 games AD Marco 09 have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Varzim 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim?
The statistical background for AD Marco 09 vs Varzim — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.