AD Marco 09 vs Vitória Guimarães II: match statistics

AD Marco 09 sit 4th, while Vitória Guimarães II are sixth, with the hosts picking up 7 points from their last 5 matches compared to the visitors’ 5. At home, Marco have won both of their matches so far, averaging 2 goals scored and conceding just 0.5 goals per game, whereas the visitors are yet to win away and concede an average of 2 goals per match. The hosts’ defense also looks stronger from a qualitative standpoint: they allow just 0.82 xG, compared to Vitória’s 1.56 xG conceded to opponents. The visitors register slightly more shots on target—4 versus 3.5—but convert just 8% of their attempts compared to the hosts’ 19%, clearly favoring the more clinical Marco side. Recent results also support the hosts, who have won 3 of their previous 5 matches, while Vitória have suffered 2 defeats and conceded 7 goals during that period.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as AD Marco 09 have conceded an average of just 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while their average xG against stands at 1.04. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far, whereas Vitória Guimarães II score an average of only 1.0 goal per game. However, the away side is defensively vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals and recording no clean sheets, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Despite this, the hosts’ BTTS rate stands at 0% for the season and 40% across their last 5 matches, while the league average for both teams to score is just 43%. The most likely scenario is therefore that AD Marco 09 score, but the hosts’ solid defence keeps the visitors at zero.

Marco 09 have averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.6 in their last 5 matches, while Vitória II have scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents 1.4. The hosts are also defensively well-protected in the season data, having kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet on every occasion. Both teams had at least 3 goals in 40% of their matches across their last five outings, which remains close to the league average of 43% and does not indicate regularly open games. The estimated 2.40 goals stems from Marco 09’s advantage in chance creation and the visitors’ xG of 1.81 over their last five matches, but the hosts’ solid defence limits the potential for four goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even if both teams score, a scenario with 4 or more goals appears clearly less likely.

AD Marco 09 has a clearly stronger home profile: they average 2.0 points per match, have not lost any game and have not conceded at home, while Vitória Guimarães II concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with average xG of 1.90 compared with 1.34 for the visitors, while they register 15 shots per match against their opponents’ 12. At half-time, however, a cautious start remains the most likely scenario, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 100% of their home matches, while in their last five games both teams averaged just 0.4 and 0.2 goals respectively before the break. The 1/1 scenario is nevertheless rated highest because the visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals before half-time in their last five matches, whereas Marco 09 score 1.0 goal at home after the break and have conceded none. The hosts’ 60% win rate in their last five matches, compared with Vitória’s 20%, further strengthens the forecast that they will maintain or build their lead through to full-time.