Adhyaksa vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics

Persebaya Surabaya are the favourites: they have won once and drawn twice in their three matches this season, while Adhyaksa have lost all three. The visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 9 points, whereas the hosts have earned 6 points and lost three times. The biggest difference is in defence: Adhyaksa have conceded 10 goals both in their three matches this season and across their last five outings, while Persebaya have let in just 3 goals in their last five. However, the visitors have not created many chances away from home, averaging 0.73 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.29 xG, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. The lack of reliable home statistics for Adhyaksa limits confidence in the prediction, but the results and Persebaya Surabaya’s considerably tighter defence point towards an away win.

In Adhyaksa’s last 5 matches, both teams scored in only 20% of games, compared with 60% for Persebaya Surabaya, making the signal inconclusive. The main argument for BTTS - No is that the hosts averaged just 0.57 xG during this period, while the visitors conceded only 0.6 goals per match. On the other hand, Adhyaksa have recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals, giving Persebaya a genuine chance to score despite averaging just 0.73 xG away from home. The hosts average 21 shots at home, while the visitors manage only 3 away, but the gap between these figures and Adhyaksa’s recent scoring form limits confidence in the prediction. It is therefore slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

In Adhyaksa’s home games and Persebaya Surabaya’s away games so far, there have been no instances of 4 goals, strongly supporting Under 3.5 goals. Both teams average 1.0 goal in these conditions, while Persebaya concede an average of 1.0 goals away from home. Adhyaksa does create chances worth 2.51 xG and averages 21 shots at home, but its actual output is only 1.0 goal per game. Meanwhile, Persebaya’s away xG is 0.73, limiting the goal expectations for the visitors. However, 60% of Adhyaksa’s last 5 matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, so the 3.5 line offers a clearer safety margin than 2.5.

Adhyaksa were level at half-time in both of their home matches so far, while Persebaya went into the break level in 3 of their last 5 games, pointing to a closely contested first half. The visitors have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches and have not lost any, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals during that spell. However, the hosts have attacking strengths: at home, they average 2.51 xG and 21 shots, while Persebaya’s away figures stand at 0.73 xG and 3 shots. Adhyaksa’s advantage is tempered by 3 defeats in their last 5 matches and a home shot-conversion rate of just 5%. Therefore, a draw at half-time and at full-time is marginally more likely than a home win after a closely contested first half.