Admira vs First Vienna: match statistics

Admira is the favorite due to a clear home offensive edge: they score 2.45 goals per match and register 5.27 shots on target with xG 1.73, while First Vienna as an away team averages only 1.25 goals per match, 3.25 shots on target and xG 1.26. The hosts create more chances (14.73 shots at home vs 10.83 for the visitors) and have a higher shot conversion rate 17% vs 12% for their opponents, giving Admira a concrete advantage in chance construction. On the other hand, First Vienna has an excellent away defence: they concede only 0.58 goals on average and keep a clean sheet in 67% of away matches, while Admira concedes 1.27 at home and has only 27% clean sheets. Recent form over the last five matches also favors Vienna — the visitors average 1.8 points per match with a 3W/0D/2L record, whereas Admira has 1.2 points and a 1W/3D/1L record. Considering Admira’s xG and efficiency advantage (1.73 vs 1.26) alongside Vienna’s defensive discipline, I tip a home win; estimated probabilities are 50% for Admira, 30% for a draw and 20% for First Vienna.

First Vienna has 67% clean sheets this season and concedes only 0.58 goals per match on average, with a season BTTS rate of just 17% — a strong signal against BTTS - Yes. Admira at home has only 25% clean sheets and concedes 1.42 goals on average with a season BTTS of 50% (BTTS 60% in the last 5 matches), indicating the home side more frequently allows goals. From an xG perspective Admira generates 1.48 xG on average while First Vienna has xG_against 1.20; First Vienna’s xG_for is 1.26 and Admira’s xG_against is 1.27, so both teams show offensive potential around ~1.2–1.5 xG. Weighing these signals, I trust First Vienna’s defensive profile (67% clean sheets, 0.58 conceded, BTTS 17%) more, therefore I assign 65% to No Goal (no BTTS) and 35% to BTTS - Yes.

I estimated expected goals at 1.34 for Admira and 1.27 for First Vienna using average xG: Admira xG at home 1.48 vs xG allowed by First Vienna 1.20, and First Vienna xG 1.26 vs xG allowed by Admira 1.27, giving a total of 2.61 goals. With lambda=2.61 the Poisson model yields P(0)=7.35% and P(1)=19.18%, so the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 73%. Over 2.5 comes out around 48% (P(<=2)=51.6%), which aligns with season shares of over 2.5 goals: Admira 50%, First Vienna 33% and league 51% — the edge for Under 2.5 is minimal. Over 3.5 is unlikely (~27%); additionally First Vienna has 67% clean sheets and concedes on average 0.58 goals per match, which limits goal volume. Based on this the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (73%), therefore I recommend a bet on the Over at line 1.5.

First Vienna clearly starts matches better — average first-half goals 1.0 versus Admira’s 0.5, and they led at the break in 58% of their games compared to Admira’s 33%. Admira generates higher xG (1.48 vs 1.26) and more shots per match (13.0 vs 10.83), but concedes far more goals over the season (1.42 vs 0.58), indicating hosts’ offensive activity coupled with weaker defense. In a simple half-by-half model I estimated first-half means of ~0.335 for Admira and ~0.79 for First Vienna and second-half means of 0.67 vs 0.25; this yields roughly a 44% chance that the visitors lead at the break and only ~15% for the hosts to lead. If the visitors are leading at half-time, they are estimated to hold the win in about 70% of such cases, which is why the HT/FT scenario HT=2 and FT=2 has the strongest signal and I assessed its probability at about 30%. Additionally, First Vienna wins 50% of matches this season versus Admira’s 33% and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of wins, so HT/FT “2/2” is the primary pick, while X/X (~20%) and 1/1 (~13%) appear less likely.