Admira vs Kapfenberger SV: match statistics

Admira sit 9th, while Kapfenberger SV are bottom in 16th place. In their last five matches, the hosts have collected 6 points compared with the visitors’ 3. Both teams have lost both matches played so far in their respective roles, but Kapfenberger concede as many as 3 goals per away game and allow opponents an average xG of 1.94. Admira create more chances at home, averaging 14.5 shots and an xG of 1.82, compared with the visitors’ 10 shots and xG of 1.41 away from home. However, the hosts’ extremely poor finishing remains a major concern: despite averaging 6.5 shots on target per game, they are yet to score at home. Kapfenberger average 2 goals scored away, so the outcome remains open, but the superior quality of chances created and the visitors’ clearly weaker defence marginally favour an Admira breakthrough.

The case for both teams to score is driven primarily by Kapfenberger SV’s very weak defensive record: away from home, they concede an average of 3.0 goals, with an xG against of 1.94, and have not kept a single clean sheet. Admira have also failed to keep a clean sheet at home, while their opponents average 2.0 goals and 6.5 shots on target per match away from home. Although the hosts score just 0.67 goals at home and have failed to score in 67% of such matches, their last five games have produced an average of 1.2 goals and an xG of 1.61, improving the prospect of finding the net against such a leaky defence. Kapfenberger SV have recorded BTTS in 100% of their away matches, while the figure in the teams’ last five matches stands at 40% and 60%, respectively. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which the visitors confirm their attacking potential and Admira capitalise on their opponent’s numerous defensive problems.

Kapfenberger score an average of 2.0 goals away from home and concede as many as 3.0, which clearly points to an open game. Admira have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches, while their average xG conceded is a high 2.08; meanwhile, the visitors record an average of 6.5 shots on target per game. Kapfenberger have also failed to keep a clean sheet, and the hosts create an average of 1.31 xG, so they should have a realistic chance of finding the net. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 2 of Admira’s 3 matches and in all of Kapfenberger’s matches so far, while the league averages 3.05 goals per game. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as even with Admira’s potentially weaker finishing, the exceptionally vulnerable defenses of both teams significantly reduce the likelihood of a game ending with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Admira victory at the final whistle. In their last five matches, Admira averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded only 1.0, while Kapfenberger also scored 1.2 but allowed opponents to score 1.8 goals. The hosts were level at the break in 20% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for the visitors, with both teams averaging just 0.6 and 0.4 goals before half-time, respectively. After the break, Kapfenberger conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their latest run, while Admira recorded a positive points balance during that period, favouring a turnaround and a takeover of the match by the hosts in the second half. Additionally, the visitors lost 80% of their last five matches, whereas Admira won 40%, so after an evenly balanced start, the hosts are more likely to close out the match.