ADT vs Alianza Atlético: match statistics

ADT have clear strengths in home fixtures: they average 1.36 goals, create chances worth 1.74 xG, and maintain 60% possession. Alianza Atlético concede as many as 1.82 goals per away match, keep a clean sheet in only 9% of fixtures, and have an average xG against of 1.52. The visitors have won just 18% of their away matches and lost 64%, while ADT win 36% of their home games and concede an average of only 1.09 goals. The main concern for the hosts is their very poor current run, having failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 8. Despite Alianza’s better recent form, with 2 wins and 7 goals in their last five fixtures, ADT’s superiority in chance creation and the visitors’ defensive weakness point towards a home win.

The scenario of both sides scoring is primarily supported by Alianza Atlético’s weak defence: away from home, the team concedes an average of 1.82 goals and has kept a clean sheet in only 9% of matches. ADT should therefore have good conditions to find the net, especially as they create an average xG of 1.56 and register 5.3 shots on target per game. The visitors have scored an average of 1.4 goals across their last five appearances, while ADT conceded 1.6 goals per match over the same period. The BTTS trend is also clearly positive: it stood at 60% in ADT’s last five matches and 80% for Alianza Atlético, although the hosts’ season rate of 40% and their recent average of only 0.6 goals scored reduce confidence in the selection. Despite the risk of ADT failing to deliver in attack again, the vulnerability of both defences and the visitors’ current form give a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes option.

ADT score an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Alianza Atlético concede as many as 1.82 goals per away game, clearly supporting at least two goals. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.56 xG, almost identical to the 1.52 xG that Alianza’s opponents allow their rivals to generate. The visitors scored in 82% of their matches, and in their last five games they averaged 1.4 goals scored, while also conceding as many as 2.2. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 82% of Alianza’s matches and in 50% of ADT’s games, with the league average standing at 2.63 goals per match. Although ADT have recently shown weaker attacking form, averaging 0.6 goals over five matches, the defensive form of both teams increases the likelihood of Over 1.5 goals.

A half-time draw is a realistic outcome, as ADT were level at the break in 6 of their 10 matches, compared with 5 of Alianza Atlético’s 11; the hosts score only 0.6 goals per match before half-time. Recent form clearly weakens the case for ADT: they have failed to win any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.6 goals scored and conceding 1.6 per game. Alianza Atlético have won 2 of their last 5 matches, led at the break in 40% of that period, and their matches produced an average of 2.4 goals after half-time. The visitors are particularly prone to conceding after the interval, allowing opponents 1.09 goals in the second half this season, although ADT have scored just 0.2 goals during that period across their last five matches. The HT/FT scenario of a half-time draw followed by an Alianza win best combines a cautious start with the visitors’ superior current form and ADT’s poor attacking efficiency.