ADT vs Deportivo Garcilaso: match statistics

ADT has a clear advantage in quality and volume of scoring opportunities: home xG per match is 1.83 versus away xG of 1.13, and home on-target shots average 6.6 compared to 3.11 for Deportivo Garcilaso. The hosts score 1.5 goals per home game on average and fail to score in only 10% of home matches, while the visitors average just 0.44 goals per away game and are shut out in 56% of away fixtures, indicating a pronounced finishing problem for Garcilaso. Defensively both sides concede around 1.1 goals per match (ADT 1.1 at home vs Garcilaso 1.11 away), but the visitors face higher xG against on the road (1.72 vs 1.28 for the hosts), so ADT should create clearer scoring chances more frequently. Recent form leans toward the visitors — ADT’s last 5: 1 win, 4 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8, while Garcilaso have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 8 and averaging 2 points per match in that run. Considering ADT’s superiority in xG (1.83 vs 1.13), on-target shots (6.6 vs 3.11) and the high percentage of away matches in which Garcilaso fail to score (56%), I predict a home victory.

I project BTTS - Yes because ADT have 70% home matches with BTTS and the league records 57% games with both teams scoring, indicating a historical edge. Deportivo Garcilaso averages only 0.44 goals per match season-to-date and has a seasonal BTTS of 33%. However, in the last 5 matches Garcilaso averages 1.6 goals and has 8 goals in five games, which materially increases their scoring probability despite a season-long low conversion rate of 4%. ADT seasonally average 1.9 goals per home match, 5.0 shots on target and xG 1.37, so they generate chances, although in the last 5 matches they scored 1.0 goal on average and conceded 1.6 over those five games. Considering ADT’s 70% BTTS at home, the opponents’ 1.6 goals in the last 5 and Deportivo’s conceded xG 1.72 per match, I assign a 62% probability to BTTS and 38% to No Goal.

The xG-based model estimates ADT at 1.55 xG (attack xG 1.37 and xG against Garcilaso 1.72, average (1.37+1.72)/2≈1.55) and Deportivo Garcilaso at 1.16 xG (1.13 and 1.20, average ≈1.16), totaling 2.71 expected goals. The Poisson distribution with λ=2.71 yields about a 75% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 51% chance of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 29% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). ADT scores 1.9 goals at home on average, records 5.0 shots on target and has a 15% conversion, while Garcilaso away posts only 0.44 goals, 3.11 shots on target and a 4% conversion, which increases the likelihood of host goals. Historical data confirm this direction: ADT has 80% of matches Over 1.5 and 50% Over 2.5, Garcilaso 33% and 22% respectively, so the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line (Over 1.5: 75% probability).

ADT holds a clear advantage: they average 1.9 goals per match versus Deportivo’s 0.44 and win 70% of games compared to only 11% away wins. At Half-Time ADT led in 40% of matches and were level in 50%, while Deportivo led in only 11% and were level in 78%, so most often the interval will be a draw or a narrow lead for the home side. In the Second Half ADT scores on average 1.2 goals (vs 0.33 for the away team) and overall in second halves they produce on average 2.0 goals versus 1.22 for the visitors, giving them substantial punching power after the break. Additionally, ADT’s shot conversion rate is 15% versus 4% for the visitors, and xG is 1.37 versus 1.13, suggesting the home side more frequently converts chances into goals. Therefore I consider the Half-Time draw / Full-Time home win (X/1) the strongest signal and assign it the highest probability of 40%, while the HT/FT home/home (1/1) scenario is the second most likely at 36%.