AEK Athens vs Iraklis Thessaloniki: match statistics

AEK Athens sit 1st in the home standings, while Iraklis Thessaloniki are ranked 5th in the away table, giving the hosts a significant home advantage. AEK have not lost any of their last five matches, drawing as many as 4 times and scoring 6 goals while conceding 5. Iraklis have scored slightly more over the same period, finding the net 7 times, but their defence has also allowed 7 goals, and the team suffered 2 defeats. Both teams averaged 1.4 points per match across their last five league games; however, AEK’s greater stability and unbeaten run favour the hosts. AEK’s high draw rate increases the likelihood of a closely contested match, but a narrow home win remains the most probable outcome.

Recent results clearly support goals from both sides: AEK recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Iraklis did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals and created chances worth 1.53 xG, whereas Iraklis conceded an average of 1.4 goals while allowing opponents 1.54 xG. The Thessaloniki side themselves averaged 1.4 goals per match, while AEK conceded 1.0 goals and allowed opponents 1.21 xG. Both teams therefore possess sufficient attacking potential, and Iraklis’s defensive vulnerability in particular increases the likelihood that the hosts will score; the more probable scenario is BTTS - Yes.

The available data from the last 5 matches indicate moderate scoring potential: AEK averaged 1.2 goals, while Iraklis averaged 1.4. However, the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.53 xG, while Iraklis’s defence allowed opponents 1.54 xG, supporting a projection of 1.48 goals for AEK. Iraklis has a lower attacking xG of 1.10, and AEK conceded an average of 1.0 goal per match, making an expectation of around 1.15 goals for the visitors realistic. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of AEK’s last 5 matches and in 3 of Iraklis’s last 5, but the combined projection of 2.63 goals more clearly supports the Under 3.5 line; reaching four goals would require a result above both teams’ typical scoring level.

The strongest signal is AEK’s draw-oriented profile: the hosts have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, or 80%, and have lost none of them. AEK were level at half-time in 60% of these matches, compared with 40% for Iraklis, which clearly supports a balanced scoreline after the first half. The hosts played very cautiously before the break, scoring and conceding an average of 0.2 goals, making a scenario without a clear advantage for either side particularly likely. After the break, AEK score an average of 1.0 goals compared with Iraklis’ 0.6, but they also concede 0.8 goals, so a slight home advantage may not be enough to decide the match. A draw at half-time and a draw at full-time best combines AEK’s high draw frequency with the balanced records of both teams in their last five appearances.