AEL vs Olympiakos: match statistics
AEL vs Olympiakos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AEL played Olympiakos in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
AEL: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Olympiakos: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
AEL scores 1.23 and concedes 1.35 goals per match. Olympiakos scores 0.90 and concedes 1.39. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AEL 42%, Olympiakos 48%. Over 2.5: AEL 52%, Olympiakos 42%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
AEL has higher xG: 1.18 vs 1.16. AEL: 8.9 shots per match, Olympiakos: 8.7.
Match halves
AEL: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.81. Olympiakos: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.39.
Goals by minute
AEL: 76-90+ (13 goals). Olympiakos: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AEL holds a clear home offensive edge: on average 1.38 goals per home match versus only 0.88 goals conceded by Olympiakos away, indicating the hosts’ superior ability to score. This is supported by xG — AEL produces 1.30 xG at home while Olympiakos manages just 1.18 xG on the road — and a higher shot conversion rate of 13% versus 10% for the visitors, meaning the hosts convert chances more frequently. Defensively AEL concedes 1.25 goals per home game on average, while Olympiakos concedes 1.44 goals away and carries a negative goal difference on the road (-9), which raises the risk for the visitors. In the last 5 matches AEL have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per game, whereas Olympiakos have 2 wins and 3 losses with 1.2 points per game — the visitors are slightly better in form, but the xG and conversion differentials favor the hosts. Additionally AEL attempts more shots (10.38 vs 9.0) and has a lower share of matches without scoring (31% vs 38%), therefore I predict an AEL victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong signal for BTTS - Yes: season BTTS 53% for AEL and 44% for Olympiakos, with recent 5-match rates rising to 80% (AEL) and 60% (Olympiakos). Both teams concede over 1 goal per match this season (AEL 1.33, Olympiakos 1.44), and in the last 5 AEL concedes on average 1.6 goals, increasing likelihood of conceding. xG indicates both create chances: xG for 1.14 (AEL) and 1.18 (Olympiakos) with xG against 1.54 and 1.45, meaning matches generate opportunities on both ends. Clean sheets are rare for these teams (27% vs 25%) despite the league average of 63%, while shots on target 2.6 and 3.25 and conversion rates 11% and 10% suggest chances will be converted. Considering elevated recent BTTS figures (80%/60%), high conceded xG and average goals conceded 1.33/1.44, I tip BTTS – Yes (~65%) vs 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I calculated expected goals: AEL about 1.30 (attacking xG 1.14 and historic average xG conceded by Olympiakos 1.45 → mean ≈1.30) and Olympiakos about 1.36 (attacking xG 1.18 and average xG conceded by AEL 1.54 → ≈1.36), total ≈2.66 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.66 gives about a 74% chance of Over 1.5 (probability of 0–1 goals ≈26%), while at the 2.5 line the situation is almost even – P(≤2) ≈50% vs P(≥3) ≈50%. Seasonal stats support Over 1.5: AEL has 73% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, Olympiakos 69%, but the share of matches over 2.5 is only 47% and 38% respectively, which limits value for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely: seasonally 20% for AEL and 25% for Olympiakos, and the model indicates ≈28% for Over 3.5 (i.e. Under 3.5 ≈72%). Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 – it has a clear numerical edge (~74%) and is corroborated by both xG and seasonal percentages.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
AEL led at the break in 6 matches (40%) and were level at half-time in 7 (47%), whereas Olympiakos were leading at the break in only 4 matches (25%) and conceded a lead in 7 (44%), giving the hosts the advantage in the first half. AEL averaged 0.53 goals by half-time and conceded 0.33, while Olympiakos averaged 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded at the break; additionally AEL accumulated 25 points in half-time situations (average 1.67 points) versus the visitors’ 17 points (average 1.06), so AEL are more likely to be leading after 45 minutes. In the second half, however, the visitors perform better — Olympiakos average 1.13 points in second halves (18 points) vs 0.67 for the hosts (10 points) and have 25% second-half wins compared to AEL’s 7%, which increases the risk of a turnaround. Considering AEL’s strong control before the break (clean sheet at half-time in 87% of matches) and similar xG values of 1.14 (AEL) versus 1.18 (Olympiakos), the most likely scenario is AEL leading at half-time and holding on to win at full-time (1/1). In my assessment the model assigns the highest probability to this scenario (around 26%), with alternatives: HT/FT draw/draw ~21% and draw at half-time with an away win ~14%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AEL | Olympiakos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEL is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - AEL · 1.2 pts / match - Olympiakos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AEL is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.23 goals / match - AEL · 0.9 goals / match - Olympiakos
AEL scores in 65% of matches (20 of 31 matches), while Olympiakos keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
Olympiakos scores in 61% of matches (19 of 31 matches), while AEL keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AEL
Over / Under - Olympiakos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Olympiakos is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - AEL · 1.35 pts / match - Olympiakos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AEL - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Olympiakos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 26%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -10 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AEL
Olympiakos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| AEL | Liga | Olympiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.58 | 2.59 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | • 42% | 42% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 31% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 73% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): AEL 1 - 1 - 0 Olympiakos. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AEL vs Olympiakos?
The First Division match finished AEL 1:3 Olympiakos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AEL and Olympiakos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AEL won 1, Olympiakos won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AEL vs Olympiakos?
AEL score 1.23 goals per game on average and Olympiakos 0.90. The First Division average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 42% of AEL's matches and 48% of Olympiakos's.
What form are AEL and Olympiakos in?
Over the last 5 games AEL have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Olympiakos 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEL vs Olympiakos?
The statistical background for AEL vs Olympiakos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.