AEL vs Paphos: match statistics
The match promises to be very evenly contested. AEL shows solid home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5), yet their recent results have been inconsistent. Paphos occupies a higher league position (4th place) and boasts better offensive statistics (39 goals this season), but they drop points in 40% of their away matches. A key factor is Paphos's advantage in ball possession (55% vs 51%) and higher average shots on target per match (5 vs 3). Considering the similar xG values of both teams and their identical form in the last five matches (1.8 PPG), a draw seems the most probable outcome, although a win for either side is equally possible.
AEL vs Paphos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AEL played Paphos in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 15 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
AEL: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Paphos: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
AEL scores 1.19 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Paphos scores 1.86 and concedes 1.05. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AEL 33%, Paphos 48%. Over 2.5: AEL 52%, Paphos 57%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Paphos has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.07. AEL: 7.7 shots per match, Paphos: 11.1.
Match halves
AEL: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.71. Paphos: half-time lead 52%, second-half goals 1.05.
Goals by minute
AEL: 46-60 (6 goals). Paphos: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be very evenly contested. AEL shows solid home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5), yet their recent results have been inconsistent. Paphos occupies a higher league position (4th place) and boasts better offensive statistics (39 goals this season), but they drop points in 40% of their away matches. A key factor is Paphos's advantage in ball possession (55% vs 51%) and higher average shots on target per match (5 vs 3). Considering the similar xG values of both teams and their identical form in the last five matches (1.8 PPG), a draw seems the most probable outcome, although a win for either side is equally possible.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AEL | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AEL is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - AEL · 0.6 pts / match - Paphos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 56% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - AEL · 1.86 goals / match - Paphos
Paphos is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - AEL · 1.05 goals / match - Paphos
AEL scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 43% (9 of 21 matches).
Paphos scores in 90% of matches (19 of 21 matches), while AEL keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AEL
Over / Under - Paphos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - AEL · 1.95 pts / match - Paphos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AEL - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 52% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AEL
Paphos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| AEL | Liga | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.62 | 2.55 | ▲ 2.90 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 38% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 34% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AEL 0 - 0 - 1 Paphos. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AEL vs Paphos?
The First Division match finished AEL 0:1 Paphos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AEL vs Paphos?
AEL score 1.19 goals per game on average and Paphos 1.86. The First Division average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 33% of AEL's matches and 48% of Paphos's.
What form are AEL and Paphos in?
Over the last 5 games AEL have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Paphos 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEL vs Paphos?
The statistical background for AEL vs Paphos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.