AF Elbasani vs Tirana: match statistics

AF Elbasani are the favorites: at home they have a 59% win rate, scored 47 goals this season, average 1.29 goals scored and only 0.53 conceded per home match. Their home xG is 1.41, while Tirana’s away xG is 1.02, and the hosts average 4.35 shots on target per game versus 2.82 for the visitors, indicating a clear advantage in chance quality. Tirana arrive in very good form — 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, 2.6 points per game and 8 goals in that period — but away they score only 1.00 goal and concede 1.47 on average, which reduces their effectiveness. The defensive difference is key: the hosts keep a clean sheet in 53% of home games, while the visitors do so in only 29% of away matches, and the gap in average goals conceded (0.53 vs 1.47) favors Elbasani. Considering the higher quality of chances (xG 1.41 vs 1.02), superior shooting statistics and the hosts’ stable defence, I back an AF Elbasani win.

Despite a seasonal BTTS rate of 39% for AF Elbasani and 59% for Tirana, form is decisive — in the last 5 matches Elbasani had BTTS at 100% while Tirana 60%, strongly favoring a both teams to score scenario. Elbasani averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5, while Tirana scored 1.6 and conceded only 0.6, so the hosts regularly allow goals and the visitors are capable of scoring. xG data confirm this from a chances perspective: Elbasani generates 1.20 xG per match versus 1.02 xG for Tirana, and Tirana concedes 1.72 xG per match compared to 1.47 for Elbasani, indicating chance availability on both sides. Elbasani produces more shots (9.17 vs 7.12) and more shots on target (3.39 vs 2.82), and Tirana fail to score in only 18% of matches versus 39% for Elbasani, therefore I rate BTTS - Yes at 68% and No at 32%.

xG-based model indicates home xG 1.20 and away xG 1.02, totalling 2.22 expected goals; a Poisson model at this total estimates probability Over 1.5 goals ≈65%, Over 2.5 ≈38% and Over 3.5 ≈18%. Seasonally Elbasani had >1.5 goals in 61% of matches and Tirana in 76% (average ~69%), which supports Over 1.5. At the same time seasonal rates for Over 2.5 are only 28% (Elbasani) and 29% (Tirana), so historically Under 2.5 (~71–72%) prevails. In the last 5 matches Elbasani scored on average 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5), Tirana 1.6 (8 goals), and Elbasani have 80% of matches Over 2.5 in the last 5, which raises the short-term chance of a higher-scoring game. In summary, the strongest signal is the Over at the 1.5 line (recommendation: Over 1.5) based on xG=2.22, seasonal 61%/76% for >1.5 and current form.

I back X/2 (draw at half-time and Tirana win Full-Time) because Tirana are in superior form: 4 wins in their last 5 matches (80% win rate) versus Elbasani’s 2 wins in 5 (40%). The visitors often lead to a draw at the break — Tirana have a half-time draw in 47% of their season matches and 40% in their last 5, creating a strong likelihood of no decision after 45 minutes. In the second half Tirana perform better: over the last 5 matches they averaged 2.2 points earned after the break and had 76% of matches with at least one second-half goal, compared to 1.0 point and 67% for Elbasani. Elbasani register more shots (9.17 vs 7.12) and more shots on target (3.39 vs 2.82), but convert at 10% versus Tirana’s 14% conversion, and xG reads 1.20 for Elbasani against 1.02 for Tirana, which indicates greater efficiency from the visitors and increases the probability of the X/2 HT/FT scenario.